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UCLA vs. California
Betting Line: Cal -8 o/u 48.5
10/9/10
Few teams started the reason as hot as Cal did. After starting the season 2-0
outscoring their opponents 104-10 and looking good doing it they made a trip to
Nevada where they were really exposed by a solid Nevada team 52-31. They really
needed to bounce back last week against a very good Arizona team, but they came
up just short losing 10-9.
After opening up Pac 10 play 0-1 this game against
instate rival UCLA becomes even more important and should play a big role in
what kind of season the Bears have.
UCLA started their season the exact opposite compared to Cal. UCLA lost their
opening two games to Kansas State 31-22 and were shutout by Stanford 35-0. After
those two games it looked like UCLA was in big trouble especially offensively,
but the Houston game was the start of their turn around. After getting a win
against the Cougars the Bruins went down to Austin, TX and completely put it on
the Longhorns winning 34-12 racking up 264 yards rushing. After that huge win
UCLA they had every reason to come out flat against Washington State, but they
went in took care of business and now they have a chance to prove to the rest of
the Pac 10 that they will have a say in the outcome of the Pac 10 title. Reduced Juice Wagering Lay -105 or
LESS Only at
5Dimes.com!
KEY MATCHUP
It is no coincidence that when UCLA RB Jonathan Franklin started to get at least
20 carries a game that this whole team turned things around. In their first two
losses he carried the ball 13 times for 60 yards against Kansas State and 11
times for 73 yards against Stanford and was unable to find the end zone in
either game. UCLA is going to run the ball right at you no matter what. They
know teams are expecting it now, but they continue to have success. They have
found their identity establishing the run, controlling the clock, and shortening
the game. Their QB Kevin Prince's main job is to get the ball to their RBs and
not turn the ball over. He plays a role similar to Georgia Tech QB Josh Nesbitt
plays. He is a threat with his arm, but has been asked to use his legs as much
if not more. Cal is going to have their hands full with this rushing attack, but
Cal is no slouch when it comes to rush defense. They are ranked 3rd in the Pac
10 allowing 126 yards a game on the ground, but they will have one of their
biggest tests of the season this Saturday.
THE FINAL VERDICT
The yards per point numbers here are even. Both teams are a 15 on defense, which
is mediocre, with Cal weighing in at 11 on offense with 13 on offense for UCLA.
Both teams have found the end zone without much trouble this year. But the Cal
numbers defensively are deceiving. They gave up 52 points to Nevada but just 3,
7 and 10 in their other 3 games.
But with the number as high as Cal -8, we think there's enough room here for UCLA. UCLA held Houston and Texas to just 13 and 12 points. It looks like defense will play a big role in this one, keeping the game tight and the score low. UCLA also has the added motivation of double revenge after losing by 20 points in each of their last two games against Cal. Two recommendations here.
UCLA +8 and
UCLA/Cal Under 48.5