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UFC 117 Betting Preview
Odds: Silva vs. Sonnen
Take a look at any mixed martial arts rankings of the Top 10 pound-for-pound
fighters in the world and most if not all of them will have UFC middleweight
champion Anderson Silva at No. 1. "The Spider" has won 12 fights in a row --
last loss in January 2006 to Yushin Okami -- and all 11 of his UFC bouts. His
bout against Chael Sonnen is the main event at Saturday's UFC 117 from Oakland,
Calif.
Silva (26-4-0) enters off an odd unanimous decision victory over Demian Maia at
UFC 112. It was odd because while Silva did land plenty of punches and kicks, he
spent most of the bout dancing around the Octagon and taunting Maia rather than
actually engaging him. UFC president Dana White was furious and threatened to
release Silva from the organization if he had similar antics in his next bout,
which of course is this one. Silva has never been an underdog at
Bodog's Online Sportsbook
during his 11-fight UFC career, and he is currently -525 against Sonnen after
opening at -450, where he stayed until recently. Because Silva is usually so
heavily favored, bettors tend to parlay him with other bouts to increase the
payout of the wager. And that has been the case here, so even though Sonnen is
getting the slight majority of action on the line we moved Silva to -525 after
last week's UFC on Versus 2 as 53% of all the parlays are still live after that
event.
No. 1 middleweight contender Sonnen (24-10-1) is on a three-fight winning
streak, the last victory coming at UFC 109 with a unanimous decision over Nate
Marquardt. Sonnen's last loss came to the same Maia whom Silva just toyed with.
But Sonnen also beat Okami at UFC at 104 -- in fairness, Silva didn't
technically get beaten by Okami (he has never officially lost in the Octagon)
but was disqualified because of an illegal kick.
And Sonnen has been talking trash for months about Silva.
"I've beat the champion of every company except for the UFC," said Sonnen, a
very skilled wrestler who could have the advantage on the ground. "I've
accomplished far more in this sport than Anderson Silva."
And: "I just don't like him. That's it," Sonnen said. "I don't offer an apology
and I don't need to give an explanation. We can't all get along. I'm going to
take his belt on [Saturday] and Dana's going to fire him on [Sunday]."
Silva, who has drawn some criticism in his career for lacking passion, has kept
mostly quiet but promises to bring his "A game" on Saturday.
Sonnen is currently at +350, but he is getting approximately 55 percent of the
handle to Silva's 45 percent on the line on that fight; the main event is
drawing better than 31.30 percent of the total betting handle for the entire UFC
117 card. Sonnen is used to being an underdog because he has been at
Bodog in each of his four
previous UFC fights and in six of his seven total fights offered at the site.
But Sonnen has paid out nicely for players during his three-fight winning
streak, going off at +375 against Marquardt, +250 against Okami and +185 vs. Dan
Miller at UFC 98.
Of course Bodog will offer several props for UFC 117 -- those will be available
on Thursday. The "who will win Fight of the Night" generally is the most-bet
prop with about 50 percent of the total prop action.
And as of this writing one of the undercard fights is actually seeing more total
action than Silva-Sonnen if you throw out parlay action. That would be Thiago
Alves vs. Jon Fitch, currently with Alves at Even and Fitch at -130. This bout
accounts for 31.76 percent of the total card. Alves, who hasn't fought since
losing to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 100 last July, is getting 57.30 percent of
the total handle. Alves (16-6-0) lost to Fitch via TKO back at UFC Ultimate
Fight Night 5 in the summer of 2006. Fitch (22-3-0) hasn't been beaten since
also losing to St. Pierre, that at UFC 87 by unanimous decision. Because bettors
seem to think should be a very competitive fight, it is drawing more two-sided
action than Silva-Sonnen.
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