Top Sportsbooks
2010 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
VIKINGS VS. SAINTS
1/22/10
The NFC Title games over the years, in the Super Bowl era, have been like the AFC games. More blowouts than close games. As mentioned in the Colts/Jets write up, there is something about Title games, including Super Bowls, that magnifies the talent gap between teams. If you take a look at all of the past NFC title games, you'll find that only 5 of those games were decided by a field goal or less. Put another way, if you gave the loser 3.5 points in each of the past 43 NFC title games, the losers record would be 5-38 against a spread of +3.5, which is the line in this game.
Bottom line? Concentrate on picking the straight up winner here. If you're successful, you'll likely cover the spread as well. Sports InterAction has the Saints favored by -3.5 with a total of 53.
This game is a win-win deal for the NFL providing the Colts beat the Jets, because that would mean a Super Bowl matchup of Favre vs. Manning or Brees vs. Manning. Either one will grab the attention of the Nation and will no doubt be one of the most watched Super Bowls of all time. I'd imagine the NFL is secretly rooting for the Vikings and Favre. But either matchup is sellable.
You have to be impressed with the job the Vikings did against the Cowboys last week. They completely shut down a Cowboys offense that although it was having trouble putting points on the board this year, it had no trouble moving the ball and was ranked top 3 in many offensive categories. Not to mention the fact that they hung 34 points on the board against a defense that was no doubt among the top 3 in the NFL. Impressive.
The Saints were impressive as well. They came out fired up and proved a week off didn't amount to rust. They proved they could turn it on when they needed to. It wasn't surprising that they put 45 points on the board. But I imagine there weren't many who thought the Saints would hold a Cardinals team that scored 51 points the week before to just 14 points.
We can use the fancy numbers to make a case for the side we like here as they all favor our side. Some by a slim margin, others by more, but all favor the same side by anywhere from 4 to 8 points. That side is the Saints.
Once again we bring up the fact that at the height of the Saints season, they were the 3rd most productive offense in NFL history. That's pretty good, eh? They have been a team that has been seemingly able to turn it on, whenever they have needed to this year. There have been games where they just dominated the entire game, and there have been games where they were caught sleeping and going through the motions. But they were always able to turn it on and pull out the wins when they needed to with the exception of the Cowboys game back in December. We'll give them a pass for that.
The difference between the NFC Title game and a regular season game is immense. It's very easy to see how a team can come in flat during the regular season, especially against teams they know they are better than. But in a game where the winner goes to the Super Bowl, you're going to get the pedal to the medal from the opening gun. No flat spots here. No taking the opponent lightly. So, a team that has been able to turn it on, literally on a dime, is going to turn it on before the game even kicks off.
The feeling here is that the Vikings lost THIS game, back on December 20th and December 28th when they dropped consecutive games to the Panthers and Bears which allowed the Saints to clinch home field. The home field here is likely going to prove to be the difference and the Vikings will have only themselves to blame.
The Vikings were a .500 team away from home this year. They gave up 36 to the Bears and 30 to the Panthers. They gave up 30 at Arizona and that's just their last three road games, all losses. Now they come in to face the high powered Saints offense, an offense averaging 33 points per game at home. They have given up plenty of points on other occasions as well, like 31 to the Ravens earlier in the year at home. So, it's a safe bet that the Saints will find their way into the end zone a few times this week.
Favre will get his yards as well. Both of these teams figure to have some offensive success. But ask any team that's had to play at the Superdome and they'll tell you it's a tough place to play. It's among the loudest stadiums in the NFL. The Vikings know the benefits of playing their home games in a dome. But here, those benefits will favor the Saints. There were more than a few occasions last week where the crowd noise had a direct impact on what happened on the field with the Cardinals offense. Well, amp it up a few notches this week. This is the NFC title game and this is New Orleans. A city that can taste it's first Super Bowl birth ever. They have hosted a few, but haven't had their team in the big one.......until now.
I just don't think there's a team in the NFL that can't stop this Saints offense, especially in a spot like this. The Vikings get their points and make it exciting, but it's the Saints that are still standing when the smoke clears. Let's call it Saints 34-20. A 2* Key Release
Hoops Plays coming soon!