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VIRGINIA AT MIAMI
HANDICAPPING WITH SCHEDULE STRENGTH
2/23/10
One of the things we like to do with these articles is give you a little insight
into the way we approach basketball handicapping. One of the things you see us
refer to in these articles is schedule strength. While this game we are going to
look at today is not an official play (we'll explain why) it is a great example
of the role of schedule strength in college hoops handicapping.
After 16 games of the season had been played, Miami looked like world beaters.
On paper at least. They were 15-1. They were shooting 55% in some games while
holding opponents to 33%. To the casual observer, you had a pretty damn good
basketball team in the Hurricanes.
Truth is, they weren't very good. Sharp bettors picked up on this right away. We
cashed several winning tickets by going against Miami once conference play
started. The Hurricanes lost their first 5 games in conference play against the
spread. The oddsmakers may have caught up however, as they are 4-1-1 against the
spread their last 6 games.
Miami built their early season record and stats against a weak non conference
schedule. It's very similar to the way a top boxing prospect is handled with kid
gloves early in his career in order to pad hs record while in search of a big
pay day and a title shot.
After their 15-1 start, Miami has gone 2-8. They are 3-8 in conference play and
17-9 on the year and can forget about making the big dance. We won't be playing
against them in this spot however.\
When we work this game up to come up with a predicted final we get a score of
63-62 Miami. With +6 available at most sportsbooks, that gives us a 5 point gap
between our number and the line. Enough for us to make a play. However, we look
for additional factors before making the plunge.
One of the most important handicapping factors this time of year is current
momentum. Is a team playing even, above or below their season rating? Teams that
are playing above their season ratiing come tourney time are great teams to zero
in on. Likewise, it's a good idea to stay away from teams playing below their
season rating.
Virginia would be a team playing below their season rating. They have lost their
last 5 games while shooting just 35% on average. Miami shot over 50% their last
two times out. We also like to look at how teams played against common
opponents. In this case, Miami actually performed better against common
opponents than Virginia did.
To summarize, our initial work up on this game has Miami winning by just 1
point. An edge for Virginia. However, when digging further into the matchup, we
see that Virginia is probably not the best team to invest in right now due to
their current form. So, we pass.
But now you have a nice piece to the handicapping puzzle that you can tuck away
and use in the future. Things aren't always the way they seem on paper. You can
cash plenty of tickets by finding "Paper Tigers" and betting against them when
the time is right.