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TCU vs. Air Force Pointspread Pick and Betting Preview
Air Force hosts TCU on Saturday afternoon and oddsmakers have made the Falcons a 2 point home underdog to the Horned Frogs, a team that has beaten Air Force in 7 of the last 8 meetings, at times by wide margins.
We all waited for last week to see how far TCU had potentially fallen after losing so many key starters from their 13-0 team. Did we get our answer? Perhaps. Perhaps not. They lost a 50-48 shootout to Baylor. So, the quick observation would be that the TCU offense can still light up the scoreboard but the defense is a major problem, having given up more points than they have in many years.
But we really don't know anything yet. The offense may not still be a force. After all, they scored 48 against what was one of the worst defenses in college ball a year ago. For that matter, we really don't know that the defense is a mess either. They did outscore Baylor 25-3 in the 4th quarter. Maybe the team just needed to get the kinks out?
The answer is likely somewhere in between. TCU is no where near as good as they have been in the past. But at the same time, they likely aren't as bad as the 50-48 loss to Baylor makes them look.
That being said, knowing they are at least down a notch, there's no better time for a capable team like Air Force to finally turn the tables, especially when you consider that this will be their last shot at TCU as a conference rival. Air Force was a solid team a year ago and should be in good shape again this year with most of the team back. They almost knocked off Oklahoma lat year, and went toe to toe with Utah. They lost 4 games last year, by 2, 3 and 5 points and then, their worst loss of the year, to TCU 38-7.
Betting on sports is a numbers game. Any game is potentially worth betting, as long as the numbers are right. That's the difference between recreational bettors, and professional bettors. A recreational bettor will bet the game because he wants to bet THAT game. A pro will only play if the numbers are right.
In this game between Air Force and TCU, we'd start to get interested if Air Force went to +3. At the current number of TCU-2, we're basically just being asked to pick the straight up winner. While Air Force may win straight up, we'd prefer a little more insurance.
Note that Air Force has played TCU tough at home the last two times out and these were very good TCU teams. In 2007 Air Force beat TCU 20-17 and then in 2009 they lost to TCU by the same score, 20-17. No reason to think Air Force can't knock of the 2011 version of TCU.
Right now, on Wednesday, we'll put this out as a strong opinion on Air Force +2. At +3 we become even more interested.
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