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Alamo Bowl 

Washington vs. Baylor

12/29/11

Rodney Dangerfield used to tell us he gets no respect. That’s how the Baylor Bears have to be feeling after being selected to play in the Alamo Bowl despite a 9-3 record gained in large part to Heisman winning QB Robert Griffin. They will take on the Washington Huskies who finished 7-5. The Huskies are a 9.5 point underdog.

Baylor boasts one of the most powerful offenses in the FBS. They rank 6th in points scored at 43.5 PPG. QB Robert Griffin, or RG3 as we know him, is the driving force. He passed for 3,998 yards and 36 TDs while being intercepting only 6 TDs. He also ran for 9 more TDs. Griffin scorched top defenses like TCU, Oklahoma and Texas. He was a combined 57 for 83 with 11 TDs and 1 INT against those teams!

While the Baylor offense is incredible, their defense is the complete opposite. They are downright awful. The Bears are allowing 35.7 PPG.

Sophomore QB Keith Price leads the way for Washington. He’s had his ups and downs this year, but catches a weak defense for the bowl game. He had a strong game on the road early in the year against Utah, passing for 226 yards and 3 TDs. While he flashed talent there, he was awful against teams like Arizona, Oregon and Stanford. He will depend greatly on RB Chris Polk to open things up. The junior is averaging 5.1 YPC and has reached the end zone 11 times this season.

The Washington defense is every bit as bad as Baylor’s. Stanford ripped them for 446 rushing yards on only 10 attempts. Arizona scorched them for 338 yards through the air.

No one can stop Baylor. Unfortunately, Baylor can't stop anyone themselves. That's what makes betting on Baylor here a dicey proposition, and not the kind of game we'd generally get involved with. Washington can put some points on the board. The teams that were able to extend a margin against the Huskies this year all had one thing in common. A good defense. Baylor lacks in that department big time.

The reason we stay away from such games is simple. You can be 100% correct in your handicapping and can be holding a decisive lead into the 4th quarter only to get backdoored late. There might be more value in betting a side here, by waiting for all the Baylor money to finish pouring in and then taking the dog at +10 or more.

The over may be worth a look here. Our score prediction model predicts 100 total points scored here with a predicted score of 56-44 in favor of Baylor. But some value gone in that proposition as well, as the total opened at 76 and has been bet up as high as 79 in sports.

This game will be a pass for us. We don't see Baylor losing straight up though, so we'd consider using Baylor in a teaser or money line parlay, just for fun. Good luck if you play the game.

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