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Auburn vs. Georgia SEC Football Pick

Betting Line - Georgia -13 O/U 53 - 5DIMES.COM

11/12/11

 Most teams have to rebuild with only a handful of returning starters exiting a BCS Championship Title year. Most of us expected Auburn (6-3) to get roughed up in 2011 after dominating the year before. That has been far from the case. The #20 ranked team in the nation pulled off a shocking upset of South Carolina earlier this year and has been in with a shot to win every game except for the one against LSU. Now they will face the #15 Georgia Bulldogs (7-2). Can they pull another upset as 13 point dog?

Georgia did something amazing last week and before you say "Yea, against New Mexico State!", we will say it doesn't matter. Putting up 42 points in a single quarter is just insane. These guys can put points on the board! Sophomore QB Aaron Murray has a world of potential and he is starting to realize it. He's got 2,060 passing yards and 23 TDs this year.

The Bulldogs are still in the hunt for the SEC Title and that gives them extra incentive to do well this week. A win here would virtually assure them the East division as their only game left in the SEC is against the very bad Kentucky Wildcats. Many are speculating at a rematch against Boise State in the Sugar Bowl if the Bulldogs can shock the world and take down the SEC.

Auburn doesn't do many things very well, but they do win ball games and that is what counts. Their top offensive player is RB Michael Dyer who has gained 989 yards and 9 TDs on 186 attempts this year. The sophomore broke through for 177 yards against Ole Miss last week.

Our model likes Georgia here by a score of 38-17 however these two teams have near identical, and mediocre, yards per point numbers on both sides of the ball. Considering that we have their schedule strengths as even, that tells us there's is plenty of value in taking a boat load of points with the visiting Auburn Tigers in this spot. Auburn +13

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