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Baylor vs. Texas A&M Football Pick with Betting Line Analysis

10/15/11

#21 Texas AM hosts #20 Baylor Saturday and the Aggies are currently listed as -9.5 point favorites, up from an opening line of -8, despite 70% of the public betting action being on Texas AM. The total is a whopping 75 points which makes it the highest total on the board this week.

We made mention in another write up we did this week, that the QB position is often times one of the most overrated positions in college football. The key word being, "often times". Not all the time. Certainly not in this match up as Baylor QB Robert Griffin III is a legitimate Heisman candidate and an absolute game changer. He's dangerous through the air and he's dangerous on the ground. He can do it all. Griffin is the second most efficient passer in the nation and goes up against the worst pass defense in the nation in Texas AM this week.

Texas AM has dominated this series to the tune of 67-31-9 and is 13-2 against Baylor since the Big 12 was formed. Last year Baylor had the Aggies on the ropes with a 30-14 lead in the 1st half but couldn't hold on.

Baylor is 1 point from being undefeated, a 36-35 loss to Kansas State, while Texas AM is 5 points from being undefeated, losing 30-29 to #7 Oklahoma State and 42-38 to #18 Arkansas. Give the strength of Schedule nod to Texas AM as they also have a wins over 4-1 Texas Tech and 4-1 SMU, as well as Idaho. Baylor's biggest win was their opener against TCU.

Every now and then, teams like Baylor land special players that ignite them to a successful couple of years. Baylor has been a basement dweller for years, routinely wining just 3 and 4 games a year. Last season they won 7, but dropped every game to a ranked opponent, including their last 3 games of the year to Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and this Texas AM team.

If this is going to be that very special year for Baylor, a year where they play in a major bowl game and bring all kinds of recognition to the school, not to mention the Heisman hopes of Griffin, than this is a must win game. They don't hand out Heisman Trophies to guys on losing teams. In fact, it's only happened once and that was Paul Hornung in 1956. The Baylor schedule is brutal the rest of the way, other than a game against Kansas. They have Oklahoma State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Texas. You gotta win em when you can.

Yes, Baylor has become a bit of a public team because of Griffin. It's also clear that some sharp bettors like Texas AM here which we can gather from the line move, despite the large percentage of bets being taken on Baylor. That being said, sharp bettors played the game at -8. There comes a point with every game and every line move where the value disappears from one side and lands on the other. This game, at this writing is teetering on -9.5. At +10, the feeling here is, the value has switched sides and we become interested.

A straight up Baylor win is not out of the question here. Both of these teams are going to score some points here just as both are going to give up plenty. Texas AM has allowed two QB's to set school passing records this year, Oklahoma State's Brandon Weed and Tyler Wilson of Arkansas. How can we expect anything but a record breaking day from Griffin? This is too many points to be giving Baylor here. Baylor +10 or more

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