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Boise State vs. Fresno State Friday Night Football Pick
10/7/11
The Friday Night Lights feature # Boise State visiting Fresno State in a game that has Fresno as a 21 point home underdog with some -20.5's beginning to show up on the board as we write this. Boise State comes in 4-0 while Fresno State weighs in at 2-3 and fresh off a 38-28 loss to Ole Miss.
We often mention Pat Hill and the Fresno State reputation as Giant killers when we cover them in a write up, but the team really hasn't killed many giants recently. That at least weren't embarrassed when they stepped up in class against Cal and Nebraska but losses to Ole Miss and barely getting by North Dakota raise some concerns. Especially when you consider they gave up 430 total yards to an Ole Miss offense that was among the worst in the nation coming in.
Boise State hasn't been as explosive thus far in 2011, scoring no more than 41 points in any game this year while Fresno has managed to put up quite a few points of their own averaging 31 points per game. Boise State has actually looked vulnerable at times, with Kellen Moore throwing two interceptions in what was the worst start of his career, against Nevada. It was actually the defense to the rescue, stepping up to the plate and bottling up Nevada.
As we frequently mention, we rarely if ever get involved with laying big numbers in any sport. So we generally look to the underdog side in a spot like this, or we pass the game completely. In the "real world", I can tell you we won't be betting this game ourselves. For the sake of making a selection here, with this being the only game in town Friday Night, we'll side with Fresno State. We'll take 3 touchdowns with a team that has the ability to score some points and also has a history of rising to the occasion every now and then and shocking the nation. Also worth noting our model predicts a 37-19 Boise win, just under the number. Fresno State +21
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