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BYU vs. TCU Friday Night College Football Pick

10/28/11

TCU hosts BYU Friday Night renewing what was once a Mountain West Conference rivalry. A rivalry that, in recent years, has been all TCU, who won last years meeting 31-3. TCU is a -13 point favorite with a posted total of 56.

TCU certainly looked like the TCU of old last week as they plastered New Mexico 69-0. But, let's not get too carried away, it was New Mexico. In fact, if you look at the rest of their previous schedule, there's nothing to indicate this team is remotely close to the team that won the Rose Bowl last year. They've lost to Baylor and SMU giving up 50 and 40 points in those contests. Scattered in there are wins over Portland State and La Monroe as well as Air Force and San Diego State. We'll know more about TCU when they play Boise State in a few weeks.

BYU has won 5 straight and is 6-2 overall. They've played a tougher schedule than TCU with their only major blemish being a 54-10 loss to Utah. Their other loss was a 1 point loss to Texas to go along with their 6 wins, although a couple of those wins came against the likes of San Jose and Idaho State.

This will be the biggest game of the year for BYU. The rest of their schedule is very winnable with their remaining games against Idaho, New Mexico State and Hawaii. A win here and this team could potentially go 10-2 on the year making their debut season as an Independent an overwhelming success and landing them in a major bowl game.

At this time of year, we start to pay close attention to our college football score prediction model. It's performance based and really starts to kick in now. While we will never make a play based strictly on the model, we will back off a play because of it, and that's the case here. Other methods we like to use point towards BYU in this spot and in fact, our gut, which can be just as good as any other method, tells us BYU is the play. But the model predicts a 36-21 TCU win which is enough for us to watch this one from the sidelines.

We'll put this out as an opinion only - BYU +13

 

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