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California vs. Colorado Free College Football Pick

9/10/11

Colorado hosts California this week in the PAC-12 opener for both programs. California opened as a 4 point road favorite and the line quickly went to -6.5 as bettors lined up to take their shots on the Golden Bears. Both of these programs were 5-7 but bettors likely remember the 52-7 early welcome to the PAC-12 Cal gave the Buffs last season.

The revenge angle can be a powerful one in college football. Especially when you get a home dog with the chance to avenge what amounts to a humiliating loss, their worst of last season. But to get revenge, teams need to be capable. Is Colorado capable here? Or is that 45 margin from a year ago the difference in talent between these two schools?

It seems as though Colorado has been rebuilding for the last 6 years. They haven't seen any success in that time and now bring in a new coach which means new schemes to learn. They did bring back quite a few key starters from a year ago, 9 on offense and 7 on defense, but the opening week loss at Hawaii surely didn't do much to build confidence.

With Cal, the last couple of years, you just never know what you're going to get. It's been a Jekyll and Hyde team. One week they'll go toe to toe with a quality team, winning the game outright or losing by a field goal or less. The following week they're blown off the field!

Despite their shortcomings, the Buffs have been a profitable home dog over the last 3 years going 8-2 against the number. Throw in the revenge angle and the importance of their first PAC-12 game, with the Buffs wanting to send a message that they belong, and we're going to make a small recommendation on Colorado +6.5.

As with any game, we'll watch the line. The higher the number goes, the more interested we become. Professional bettors will bet a game like this until there is no longer any value. The public will ride their coattails and push it a little more. When the movement is done, that places the value squarely on the other side, which is when we would make our move if we were going to play.

Colorado +6.5

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