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Chargers vs. Patriots Week 2 NFL pick With Betting Line Analysis

9/18/11

The San Diego Chargers head East to take on the New England Patriots in week 2 of the NFL in what has to be the Marquee game of the week. The Patriots opened as a -6.5 favorite which is where the line sits currently, with a total of 53.5, up from the opener of 51.5. Bet the game at 5 Dimes and get reduced juice!

The Patriots are in off their biggest offensive performance in the history of the franchise. Now that's saying something when you consider some of the offensive performances we have seen from Tom Brady and the Patriots over the years! They had 622 yards against the Dolphins and Brady had a career high 512 passing yards. Seems like we say it every year, but it sure looks as though the Patriots are once again on a mission.

The Chargers didn't look to shabby either. They held Minnesota to 39 yards through the air and 187 total yards while they amassed 407 of their own and won the first down balance to the tune of 31-10!

The Chargers, like the Patriots, have been one of the better teams in the NFL over the last several years despite missing the playoffs last year and while all looks good so far, we can't jump to conclusions with either team just yet. The Dolphins and the Vikings aren't exactly considered the NFL elite.

The Patriots have had the upper hand in this series. Rivers, one of the better NFL QB's in our opinion, hasn't played well against the Pats. We all remember the memorable playoff games, in 2006 and the AFC Title game in 2007. Rivers is 1-4 against the Patriots and in fact, of all  the NFL teams, his passer rating is lowest against New England. Also note, no more Darren Sproles for the Chargers, now with the Saints and they also lost kicker Nate Kaeding to an ACL injury.

Whenever an NFL team has a breakout record breaking type of a game, it's always wise to look to go against them the following week. A letdown is natural. This is the NFL. No team is going to go out and out up those kinds of numbers week after week. Here they face another high powered offense that can put points on the board, so it makes the underdog attractive here.

But Tom Brady has won 28 straight home games. That's the best streak of any modern day QB. The Chargers are making a tough East Coast to West Coast trip and when you consider the Chargers lack of success against the Pats, now doesn't look like a good time to start bucking the Patriots. Also take into consideration that picking the straight up winner of an NFL game is more than half the battle when attempting to be successful against the spread. Something like 80%. So, if you disregard the number for a moment, and concentrate on picking a winner, it has to be the Pats.

At anything less than a touchdown, we like the Pats here. Patriots -6.5

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