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Florida State vs. Clemson Pick with Betting Line Analysis
9/24/11
Fresh off their home loss to the mighty Oklahoma Sooners, Florida State hits the road this week to take on 3-0 Clemson. The Seminoles may also have to do that without starting QB EJ Manuel who is listed as questionable due to the shoulder injury he received against the Sooners. Although, I wouldn't be too concerned if I were the Seminoles. QB Clint Trickett looked pretty good filling in last week. Both teams are somewhat banged up with several players listed as questionable, but neither of these teams has a depth problem.
Florida State opened as a -3 point road favorite and we've seen a huge swing of 5 points. Clemson is now favored by -2. Clemson's early schedule has been very similar to that of Florida States. Two games to start the year, against cup cakes followed by last weeks step up in class to play Auburn. They trailed Auburn early and had to come from behind, but when they did, it was all Clemson after that as they piled up 624 yards and won the first down battle 32-19.
Florida State played well in a losing effort last week. Now they have to watch out for a major letdown. They were sky high to play the Sooners and now face the possibility of slipping to 2-2 on the year
We preach over and over about getting the best line value on the games you bet. Here is a perfect example. You could have had +3 on Clemson a couple of days ago. You simply can't back Clemson now, and expect to be a long term winner betting sports. Just as sure as we're writing this, Florida State will win by 1 to 3 points and all those who took +3 on Clemson will win or push while those who came in afterwards and laid -2 or more, will lose.
That's a shame, because we like Clemson here. Clemson was the best 6-7 team in the nation last year. 5 of those 6 losses were very close games, many decided by a TD or less including their loss to these Seminoles, 16-13. So with Clemson, we have a revenge game, the possibility of a Florida State let down and a Clemson team that is 52-18 at home over the last decade and change. Not to mention a banged up Florida State team. No wonder the line moved 5 points.
We'll put this out as an opinion on Clemson -2, but in the real world, we would never play this game, or any game, on the same side as a 5 point line move. That's sportsbetting suicide. Clemson -2
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