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College Football Blowout Predictions
9/24/11
We have many methods we use each week to handicap football and basketball games. These methods are the result of a 30+ year sportsbetting career. Lots of trial and error in that 30+ years!
One method we use, is a score prediction model. Those of you who followed our college basketball score prediction model last year, know how deadly accurate it was. If you didn't follow us last year, bookmaker bettorsworld and we'll see you sometime in December for the hoops predictions.
Back to football. We have a similar score prediction model we use for football. The biggest problem with football is that the model is past performance driven. So, for hoops, we have so many games played each day and a good number of games over the course of the season. Plenty of opportunities. For football, the model performs better in 2nd half of the season. Again, the more games each team has played, the better.
Just the same, after a few games have been played, we start to run the games through the model each week. So, we thought it would be interesting to list some of the results going into this weekends games and we can all follow along. We'll try and do this each week, time permitting and of course, if there's a demand for it. So, if you want to keep seeing these, drop us an email.
Let's first take a look at potential blowouts, according to the model, followed by our commentary.
East Carolina -14 over UAB - Well, the model has East Carolina by a score of 57-3! Interesting. That is right on as far as the opening total of 60.5 goes. UAB was shutout by Florida 39-0 and was beaten by Tulane 49-10. The model is picking up on the Tulane score as Tulane may not be too good, having beaten Southeast Louisiana 47-33 and being whipped by Tulsa 31-3. Meanwhile, East Carolina made a game of it against Va Tech and South Carolina. We agree with the model on this one.
Georgia -9.5 over Ole Miss - And the model says.......Georgia 42-19. Not as lopsided as the East Carolina game, but another one we'd agree with. Ole Miss has looked pathetic while Georgia lost a heartbreaker to SC and the opener to Boise.
LSU -5.5 over West Virginia - The model has this one LSU 35-14. We agree somewhat here as we think LSU is the real deal. But LSU is one of the biggest "public" sides of the week and that can be enough to scare us away. We think LSU's ability to run the ball AND stop the run is what makes LSU the side but we have to watch this one from the sidelines.
Notre Dame -7 over Pitt - Model says 38-16 Notre Dame. What the model is picking up on here is that Notre Dame has played 3 legitimate opponents in South Florida, Michigan and Michigan State, while Pitt played Maine and Buffalo before falling to Iowa last week.
Utah State -10.5 over Colorado State - The model has Utah State blowing Colo State off the field. Now, it's also interesting to note that this game moved from Utah -6.5 to -10.5 and will likely keep going. Just not enough data to trust this one. The model here is picking up that Utah State gave Auburn all they can handle while Colo State has struggled against weak opposition. But again, the two games Utah State has played are simply not enough to be able to trust the model here.
Lastly, the model picks some underdogs to win straight up:
Cal, Toledo, Temple, Bowling Green, Florida State, Buffalo and UCLA.
We shall see how all of these shake out. More or less just doing this for fun and to keep an eye on the model early in the season. The real value comes later in the year. When we run a bowl game through and the line is 3 but the model has one side by 21, we pay attention! : )
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