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College Football Score Prediction Model Picks
10/22/11
Welcome to another week of our new popular feature which focuses on the results of our college football score prediction model. We remind everyone once again that this is only one aspect of the handicapping process. Models are a great way to find false favorites, live dogs, and to just generally determine strength differences between two teams with a numeric value. However, a model doesn't know when the weather is bad, when the star QB has a hangover or whether one team has a big time revenge motive. It's just one step in the process.
This week, rather than separate the plays by blowouts, underdogs, etc, we'll just go right down the list in rotation order and point out any games where the model indicates a potential play. We'll also include some totals as well.
UCF/UAB Under 45.5 - Model predicts a 28-9 UCF win. Not enough to get excited about the side but it is 8 points less than the posted total.
Rutgers +2 over Louisville - Model predicts a 19-11 straight up win for underdog Rutgers and has been at it's best when picking dogs to win straight up. The model also suggests under 40 worth a look.
West Virginia -14 over Syracuse - The predicted score here is 42-23 WVA who also has a revenge motive working in their favor.
Virginia -5.5 over NC State - The predicted margin here is 11, a 34-23 Virginia win, which may be worth a look laying less than a TD.
Wake Forest -3 over Duke - Model continues to like Wake Forest each week, but check the injuries here. Predicted score Wake 36-25
Cincinnati +3 over South Florida - a predicted straight up win for the dog - Cinci 29-25
Buffalo +14 over No Illinois - not a large margin to work with here but worth mentioning because the public is all over Northern Illinois and the model is good at picking up on overrated and underrated teams. Predicted score 36-26 Northern Illinois. Again, not a large enough margin but may be worth a look if the number keeps rising.
Texas AM -20 over Iowa State - Not so sure about this one as Iowa State was blown out last week. But the model says 56-24 Texas AM, which also suggests the over 65.5 worth a look.
Utah State -6.5 over La Tech - One of the larger margins here as the model likes Utah State by 22 points, 48-26, also suggesting over 58 is no problem.
Temple -13.5 over Bowling Green - Not as large as a margin as we'd like to see but 33-13 Temple
Missouri +6.5 over Oklahoma State - An underdog predicted to win straight up. Missouri 40-33
Oregon -30.5 over Washington - How's a 49 point Oregon win sound? Model says 68-19 Oregon.
Nebraska -24.5 over Minnesota - Predicted margin 54-17
Utah +3 over Cal - not a large margin but the model predicts a tie so perhaps the points worth a look. 25-25
Kansas State -11 over Kansas - another game we expected a wider margin. Still a cover, but not by much. Kansas State 44-29
Wash State -3 over Oregon State - 39-26 Washington State
Navy -10 over East Carolina - Navy scored 76 points in EC last year. Can they do it again? Model says no but they'll cover. 42-22 Navy
Stanford -20.5 over Washington - Surprise, Surprise......Stanford on this page again. 46-15 says the model.
LSU -22 over Auburn - 43-8 - Tag this one as a blowout. LSU 43-8
Michigan State +7.5 over Wisconsin - Model cuts this close as far as a Michigan State cover but the UNDER the total of 49 may be worth a shot here as the model says Wisconsin by a score of 18-13
UTEP -7 over Colorado State - 36-21 Utep
Lastly, the added games. We have noticed that the model has done very well on these added games this year. That doesn't mean it will continue, but worth noting and paying attention to.
UL Laff -3 over Western Kentucky - predicted final UL Laf 35-17
Mid Ten -6 over Fla Atl - 31-19 Mid Ten
UL Monroe -6 over North Texas - 28-17 UL Monroe
There you go. So many to list this week, so not enough room for as much commentary as in the past weeks. Enjoy the games and good luck this week!
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