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College Football Upset Picks and Potential Blowouts
10/8/11
We asked for some feedback last week and heard from several of you, so we'll continue to post this popular new feature each week, time permitting. Last week once again was successful for this page, particularly the underdogs, as they were 5-3 against the spread, but more importantly, 4-4 straight up, which means betting them straight up against the money line would have been very profitable so far this year.
Again, this is a performance based model. Models have their place in handicapping, but they can't take into account injuries and situations in different match ups. There still needs to be a human element involved in the decision process, so use these predictions in conjunction with these other factors.
Let's take a look at the suggested blowouts first.
Purdue -12 over Minnesota - Not a huge blowout prediction, but enough of a cushion to list. The model likes Purdue 39-13. Both teams have their problems but Minny has the 107th ranked scoring offense and the 101st ranked defense in points allowed. Ouch!
Army -2 over Miami Ohio - Again, not a blowout, but a big cushion as the model likes Army 26-15 and the number here is only -2. Makes sense as Miami Ohio is dead last in rushing at an average 49 yards per game and 118th in scoring offense.
Stanford -30 over Colorado - We said last week we expected Stanford to be on these pages most weeks. Well, here they are again. The model says 30 points isn't high enough and predicts a 51-9 score.
Oklahoma State -31 over Kansas - Kansas close to last in many categories while Oklahoma near the top of most offensive categories. Kansas can run the ball though which could keep the margin down. But the model says no way. Check this score out - Oklahoma State 79-35
Baylor -15 over Iowa State - The model correctly picked against Baylor last week with Kansas State. But this week, the model says it won't be close. Baylor 57-23
Utah State -11.5 over Wyoming - One of the larger margins here as the model likes Utah State 52-22. The model is picking up on the schedule strength difference here as Wyoming has played Weber St, SW Texas and Bowling Green.
Michigan -7.5 over Northwestern - The model isn't buying into Northwestern but thins Michigan is for real. We shall see, but if the number drops to -7 or less this may be worth a closer look. Predicted score Mich 29-13.
Next we move on to the underdogs that the model predicts to win straight up......
Buffalo +8.5 over Ohio U - The model is picking up on the strength of schedule here. At first glance, statistically speaking, it looks like a mismatch, however, note that Buffalo has played a schedule that has been as much as 20 points more difficult. Prediction - Buffalo 17-16
Washington State +4 over UCLA - The model says the +4 won't be necessary as is predicts a 43-29 Washington State win.
Rutgers +7 over Pitt - This game opened +9.5 so apparently the model isn't the only one who likes Rutgers here. Rutgers is 4-0 against the spread and the model had them winning straight up as underdogs last week as well, which they did. Be careful here, Rutgers can't run! Predicted score Rutgers 28-15
That's it for this week. Interesting week. Not as many lopsided scores to pass along and not as many underdogs being picked to win straight up. Just the same, the model gets stronger as the season moves along, so we'll be finding plenty to bring to your attention each week. Good Luck this week!
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