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Friday Hoops Picks
2/18/11
Believe it or not we had a very long, detailed write up with 3 or 4 games ready to go this morning, and lost all of our work due to a PC crash. %!%*#!!ing computers.
We aren't going to rewrite the entire article so we'll just go ahead and give you the summary here. We took a look at some Ivy games along with the Bracket Buster game between Drexel and Kent State.
Princeton vs. Yale - Yale still not out of the Ivy League race and still playing for a post season tournament birth. They went toe to toe with Princeton in their first game and have played well at home. We'd lean towards Yale here but our model says otherwise. Predicted score Princeton 68-63
Penn at Brown - We used this game to illustrate how two teams that appear even on paper and in the won loss column may not be as even as they look. A look at each teams schedule and you'll see what we mean. Penn has played a few teams you may have heard of, like Pitt, Villanova, Kentucky and Temple along with a few others. The biggest name on the Brown dance card is fellow Rhode Island resident Providence, a game which Brown lost by 30 points. That's why our model says take Penn tonight. Predicted score Penn 75 Brown 67.
Harvard at Cornell - A spot where our numbers have performed well. Picking a dog in a spot like this. The model has this game even. Tough to trust Cornell here at 6-16 against 18-4 Harvard but remember the bounce back angle. Harvard destroyed Cornell the first time around and seldom to we see a repeat performance in game two. Predicted score Harvard 68 Cornell 68
Kent State at Drexel - Lastly, we used this Bracket Buster game as an example of how our model takes schedule strength into account. Here you have two teams from different conferences that appear dead even on paper, with identical records in the win column. In fact the betting line indicates they are dead even with Drexel being favored by 4.5 to 5 points, which is essentially the home court edge.
However, our model has Drexel by 9 here, indicating that while they may look even, Drexel's 17 wins are more impressive than Kent State's. You'll find far better examples of this from here forward, it's just that this was the best illustration of this on tonight's card.
Syracuse and Fairfield both have 21 wins. Are they equal? Of course not. That's obvious. But in many other cases, it's not so obvious. That's where a tool like our model is essential!
Predicted score - Drexel 64 Kent State 55
Sorry we don't have a better article for you today. We initially did.......honestly!
Have a good one everyone!
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