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#14 Florida Gators at #21 Vanderbilt Commodores

Betting Preview with Prediction

3/5/11
 
The 14th-ranked Florida Gators (23-6, 12-3 SEC) have already wrapped up the conference’s East Division title and will go for a regular-season sweep of the 21st-ranked Vanderbilt Commodores (21-8, 9-6) when they visit Nashville on Saturday.  The Commodores have dropped two of their last three games straight-up but have covered the spread in five of their past six.
 
Vanderbilt is coming off a 68-66 loss at #20 Kentucky on Tuesday, splitting the season series with the Wildcats as each game was decided by four points or less.  The Commodores trailed 40-29 at halftime before putting together an impressive rally after the intermission.  They could have locked up a first-round bye in the SEC tournament with a victory and can still accomplish that goal with a win here against Florida coupled with a loss by Kentucky at Tennessee.
 
The Gators edged Vandy 65-61 in overtime in the first meeting back on February 1 behind the backcourt scoring of Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker, who combined for 30 points.  The duo made just 9 of 27 shots from the field but converted 8 of 10 free-throw attempts in the win.  Both teams shot less than 38 percent from the field in what turned out to be an ugly offensive game.
 
That victory sparked a run of seven wins in the last eight games for Florida, with the OVER cashing in the past four along with six of seven.  The Gators routed Alabama 78-51 on Tuesday to close out their home slate, just one of five times they covered at home in 14 games.  They have actually performed better on the road against the spread with a 5-4-1 mark.
 
The Commodores have a similar trend in their games, going 7-2-1 ATS on the road and just 5-7 at home despite a 14-2 SU mark there.  They have played four of their past five away from home and lost the only game they hosted during that stretch to Tennessee, 60-51.  They did not allow an opponent to score more than 69 points over that period, with the UNDER cashing four times.
 
Vanderbilt had seen higher-scoring games in the previous seven at home before losing to the Volunteers.  The OVER went 6-1 in those games, with the Commodores averaging almost 81 points.  Florida has scored 68 points or less in its last four road games but won three of them with the OVER cashing each time.

Score Prediction Vandy 71 Florida 67

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