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Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Pointspread Pick with Analysis

10/15/11

Georgia Tech, 6-0, 3-0 in the ACC Coastal and ranked 12th in the Nation, travels to Virginia to take on the Cavaliers on Saturday as they look to stay unbeaten. Georgia Tech is favored by -7 with a total of 55.5. Georgia Tech has won the last two meetings with Virginia, 33-21 last year and 34-9 in 2009.

The obvious problem right off the bat in this game for Virginia is their inability to put points on the board. They can get away with that against Idaho, but likely not with Georgia Tech. Against Idaho in their last game, they scored 14 points in the 1st quarter and were then held scoreless until overtime. Virginia has used two QB's in every game, Freshman David Watford and Sophomore Michael Rocco.

Georgia Tech looks to get back on track offensively as well this week. They looked unstoppable through 5 games, averaging over 50 points per game to lead the nation in scoring but stumbled last week against Maryland, barely holding on for a 21-16 win over the Terrapins.

The yards per point numbers here illustrate the difference between the two points when it comes to converting yards into points. Georgia Tech, offensively, has a yards per point number 12, which means they score 1 point for every 12 yards they travel. Virginia's number is 16. They come in even on the defensive side of the ball although Georgia Tech is a +4 in turnover margin while Virginia is a -4. Typical of a young team. Mistakes.

Our model sees Georgia Tech comfortably covering the -7 spread here with a predicted score of 40-24. We'd agree with the model. We'd expect the Tech offense to bounce back from a bad performance and get back on track. The Virginia offense never was on track. This game opened up Tech -8 and has dropped to -7. All things considered, you're talking about an offense that was ranked #1 in the nation prior to last week, going up against an offense that's not even middle of the pack. Extending the margin here shouldn't be a problem. Georgia Tech -7

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