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Iowa vs. Nebraska Big 10 Football Pick
11/25
Nebraska hosts Iowa on Friday afternoon in what will be the last Big 10 game of the season for both teams. With both teams out of the running for the Big 10 title, the only thing at stake will be improving the bowl game each appears in. Nebraska is currently a -9.5 point favorite at betonline with a total of 54.
The road hasn't been kind to Iowa this year. In fact, the Hawkeyes are 1-3 on the road with losses to Iowa State, Penn State and Minnesota before finally breaking through last week with a 31-21 win over Purdue. Their road performance is what keeps us off this game as a potential key release as Iowa isn't a terrible football team. Heck, they knocked off Michigan earlier in the year.
Will Nebraska bounce back after getting blown out in Michigan last week? Heading into that one they were still alive in the Big 10 title race. Will they throw in the towel? That's doubtful, but Nebraska has had their own problems this year, including inconsistent play from Taylor Martinez.
Iowa owns the better yards per point numbers here. The teams have identical offensive numbers but defensively, Iowa gets the nod with a ypp of 16.5 to Nebraska's 14.7. But Nebraska has played a slightly more difficult schedule. Once you factor that in, using yards per point to make a line, Nebraska would be favored by roughly 3 or 4 points.
Our score prediction model also suggests there is some wiggle room in this line, predicting a final score of 32-24 Nebraska. With the line currently sitting at +9.5, we may start to get a tad interested at +10. Again, it's the poor performance of Iowa on the road at has us shy away here, although, consider also that Nebraska is 1-5 against the number at home this year.
For now, as of Wednesday afternoon, we'll put this out as an opinion only, but we're still looking at this one and may decide it's worth a small investment. Check back on our key release page or sign up for the newsletter to be notified (upper left hand corner). Iowa +9.5
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