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Kansas State vs. Kansas Football Pick with Analysis

10/22/11

Kansas hosts Kansas State Saturday in a game that looks to be a case of the haves against the have nots. Kansas State is a -10.5 road favorite here in a series that has seen it's share of blowouts over the years, with each team taking turns on the winning side. If this is going to be another one of those blowout games that this series has seen over the years, it would look like Kansas State would be the one on top.

Kansas State is 6-0. The knock on Kansas State is going to be schedule strength, but it's not as if they have played no one. They beat Miami Florida on the road, Baylor, Missouri and Texas Tech, all formidable opponents. They held both Baylor and Texas Tech to their lowest point totals of the year and allowed 24, 17, 7 and 0 in their other 4 wins.

Kansas State looks to have a respectable defense to go along with an offense that pounds the ball. That pound the ball approach should work just fine against a Kansas team that ranks 117th against the run and hey, if Kansas State decides to throw the ball a little bit more than usual, who could blame them as Kansas ranks 119th against the pass!

Kansas doesn't figure to be able to run the ball as the Kansas State defense ranks 16th against the run but they may have some success through the air where State gives up about 250 yards per game. The yards per point numbers are good for both teams offensively as both have put points on the board but a big edge to Kansas State defensively as the ypp numbers show us Kansas can't stop anyone.

Kansas has played a more difficult schedule, that much we'll acknowledge. After opening against Mcneese State and Northern Illinois, allowing 24 and 42 points, they faced Georgia Tech, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. But it's not as if Kansas State played no one as we pointed out earlier.

Missouri, who was good at defending the run, had no answer for the Kansas State running game. You think Kansas will have the answer? Ask another team who likes to run, Georgia Tech. They scored 66 points on this Kansas team.

The only worry we have here is that Kansas State likes to hold onto the ball and kill the clock. That's always a concern when laying significant points. Our score prediction model has Kansas State winning by a score of 44-29, a 15 point margin which kind of surprises us as we thought the predicted margin would be much wider. Just the same, we can't see Kansas staying in this one so we're going to go ahead and lay the number here. Kansas State -10.5

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