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Kent State vs. Miami Ohio

College Hoops Pick

Betting Line: Kent State -1.5

2/16/11

 

As we head down the stretch we see less and less in the way of significant difference between our score prediction model and the actual betting lines in college hoops. However, that doesn't mean there are no plays to be found. It simply makes the elimination process a bit easier..

The plays the continue to be the strongest are those games in which our model predicts an underdog to either win straight up, or lose by a point or two while getting 5 points of more from Vegas. If you're using these numbers daily, circling those games right off the bat and giving them a closer look is a good idea.

We haven't completed all of the games for today, however a quick glance at the card of what we have done so far, shows us that a few games already stick out. For the sake of keeping things simple, we'll just take a quick look at the first game on the card that fits this criteria and that would be Miami Ohio +1.5 over Kent State.

Our model has Miami Ohio winning straight up at home by 4 points. One of the first things to consider when looking at these games is if there are any other trends or circumstances for this game that would support our numbers. In this game, we thing we have just that.

Kent State blasted Miami Ohio the first time they played, at Kent State 78-57. If you look at college hoops games where one team blew the other out, at home, in the first game, more times than not you'll find a very different game the 2nd time around when the loser of the first game hosts the 2nd game. Kansas at Kansas State a few days ago comes to mind. Kansas rocked Kansas State at home, then proceeded to get rocked themselves in the rematch, as the #1 team in the nation no less.

The revenge factor and the chance to make up for such a bad performance is a huge motivating factor, but that's not the only thing at stake. First place in the MAC East is up for grabs as Kent State comes in at 8-2 while Miami Ohio is 8-3. Kent State is 17-7 on the year and no doubt the class of the entire MAC conference, but as a result, they also have a bulls eye on their backs and will get the best from their opponents from here forward.

The line has edged slightly in favor of Kent State here moving from -1 to -1.5 and ultimately we'd look for some additional movement before getting interested here. But just the same, we think Miami Ohio +1.5 is worth a strong look tonight as we think this game is up for grabs.  Our Score: Miami Ohio 67 Kent State 63.
 

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