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Kentucky Derby Picks

Exacta and Trifecta Selections

5/7/11

The Kentucky Derby is America's greatest event and the fastest two minutes in all of sports. The race will take place at the classic distance of 10 furlongs (1 1/4 miles) and a field of 20 horses will dash for the right to wear the Roses in the winner's circle at Churchill Downs.

The prep races this year were very unpredictable with bombs taking the Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby, Bluegrass Stakes, Louisiana Derby and Santa Anita Derby. One short priced horse did come through in his prep though. That is Dialed In in the Florida Derby. The son of Mineshaft made a big move on a speed favoring track to get the job done in the $1 million race. With an ideal post position of #8 he should be favored to win the Kentucky Derby.

Another contender to consider is Arkansas Derby winner Archarcharch. He made a ton of sense in that race, but somehow paid $52.40 to win. He will be a much less attractive price in the Run for the Roses. His works at Churchill Downs have been stellar and he is really coming into his own. This should be his best race yet. Jockey Jon Court knows Churchill Downs like the back of his hand. That is very good for the colt as he will need to use all of his experience to get good position as he will break from the #1 hole. If he can get a good start he will have a big time chance to win. If he fails to break well then all hope will be lost.

Uncle Mo was set to be one of the biggest favorites in recent Kentucky Derby history until failing to win the Wood Memorial where he ended up third. It was discovered after the race that he grabbed a quarter and had a GI tract infection. The connections say he is recovering well. If he reverts to his two-year-old form he might turn this race into a laugher. Detractors say he has question marks at the distance and some believe he just isn't the same. Uncle Mo is trained by last years winning trainer, Todd Pletcher.

While Uncle Mo and Dialed In will be somewhat short prices you can find a big price on Sunland Derby winner Twice The Appeal. He will have ace jockey Calvin Borel in the irons. Borel is the best jockey for this race and has won the Kentucky Derby three times in the last four years. If he wins it for a fourth time his backers will have their pockets lined with cash.

 

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Another long shot to consider is Master of Hounds. The European invader enters this race after finishing a very close second in the UAE Derby. We know he will get the distance here and that is half the battle. His big question is whether or not he will take to the dirt surface. If he does he will be dangerous at a huge price.

Animal Kingdom is worth a shot at a nice price. He has the distance pedigree to get the mile and a quarter and has improved each time out. He has the ability to adapt to any pace and figures to be on the move down the stretch while those who can't handle the distance fade.

Nehro has won at this distance and should be set up to close from off the pace. He is a deep closer, like Dialed In. If he can't get there to win he should have a good shot to hit the board.

The beautiful thing about the Kentucky Derby is that it's a wide open race. With 20 horses running, anything can happen and usually does. This is fantastic for the bettor because it sets up the chance to make a really nice score, simply because there will be so many horses with a shot to hit the board at very long prices. For this reason alone, you really have to throw out the short priced favorites as selections to win. You can still use them in your exotics, but to play one of them to win doesn't make much sense.

If you're looking for one horse at a nice price, we'll give you Archarcharch to win. He's currently being offered at 12/1 at bookmaker.com. It was a toss up for us between Archarcharch and Mucho Macho Man when looking for a horse at a nice price that could win.

But the real score will come if you're fortunate enough to hit a nice exacta or trifecta. So, we've tossed out most of the field  and have settled in on 6 horses that we'll use in all of our exotics.

Archarcharch 12/1

Dialed In 3/1

Animal Kingdom 35/1

Nehro 5/1

Twice the Appeal 30/1

Mucho Macho Man 11/1

If you want to throw in Uncle Mo to hit the board, it's understandable. However, we have to cut it off at some point and we prefer both Dialed In and Nehro over Uncle Mo.

We'll use the above 6 in both exacta boxes and Trifecta boxes.

All of our selections are either deep closers or like to run middle of the pack which gives us a great shot at hitting the board as the early speed drops out.

There you have it. As always, the Kentucky Derby figures to live up to it's reputation at the most exciting 2 minutes in sports. You just can't beat it. All the time spent handicapping the race, all the build up, and then, bam! It's over in a flash. Good Luck and Enjoy!

 

 

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