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Michigan vs. Iowa Big 10 Football Pick

11/5/11

The 13th ranked Michigan Wolverines travel to Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes Saturday for a game which will have a big impact in the Big 10 Legends division standings. Michigan comes in at 7-1 overall and 3-1 in conference play while Iowa is 5-3 and 2-2. A win for Iowa puts them right back into the mix while a loss likely ends their chances. They still have to face Michigan State, Purdue and Nebraska the rest of the way with 2 of those on the road where they have yet to win. Michigan is a 4 point road favorite with a posted total of 57.

We had Iowa cued up and ready to go as a Key Release last week. Fortunately, we never pulled the trigger. We had them winning in blowout fashion as a 15 point favorite. They piled up some yards and were ahead 21-10 to start the 4th quarter. Instead of finishing the job, they collapsed, losing outright to one of the worst teams in college football, the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Iowa can't seem to play a full game. They simply don't show up for 60 minutes. They were almost blown away by Pitt earlier in the year. not showing up in the first half before coming back and winning. They failed to hold onto a lead against Iowa State in the 4th quarter in that loss and they once again failed to show up down the stretch against Minnesota last week. What we can take away from those performances is that you just can't trust Iowa with your hard earned money.

If Iowa shows up and plays a full 60 minutes against Michigan, they can win this game. But who do you trust, a team like Iowa with their track record, or a team like Michigan who starts and finishes games well? For example, Michigan beat Minnesota 58-0!

Neither of these teams have played a tough schedule thus far. We'll learn a lot more about the Wolverines down the stretch but to their credit they have done what you're supposed to do against a soft schedule......win.

The feeling here is that Michigan is the better team on both sides of the ball. We'll likely see a much better effort from the Hawkeyes this week after failing so miserably last week, but we just don't trust them. Michigan has the better defense and too many weapons on offense. Our model has them winning by a score of 30-19 which sounds about right. Enough to get the cover. Michigan -4

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