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Military Bowl Pick

Toledo vs. Air Force

12/28/11

The 2011 Military Bowl features the Toledo Rockets (8-4) and the Air Force Falcons (7-5). Toledo opened as a 3 point favorite and is currently holding that line at 5Dimes while carrying 55.6% of the action. Both teams like to score and both teams play very little defense, so this could be a shootout from start to finish. Toledo HC Dan Beckman has bolted for greener pastures at Illinois and OC Matt Campbell has already been tabbed as the new boss for this bowl game and next season.

The Air Force offense is led by seasoned veteran Tim Jefferson. The senior has been around the block and he is quite an efficient player. This year, he has posted 10 rushing TDs and passed for 12 more. The triple wishbone offense emphasizes the running game and Air Force ranked 2nd in the FBS with 320.3 rushing yards per game.

Toledo’s defense has been putrid on the whole and the secondary is especially bad. Despite that, they have had success against a similar offense, Temple, and held them to 3.2 YPC. On the flip side, Air Force has had very little success against the run, but their secondary has performed much better.

Toledo used a combination of QBs most of the year, but since the injury of Austin Dantin the youngster Terrance Owens has come on strong. He has passed for a combined 6 TDs in his two games as the starter.

A common foe for these teams is Boise State. Air Force lost to the Broncos by a score of 37-26 on the road while Toledo lost at home 40-15.

This game should see some fireworks. Nothing strong here, but we like Toledo based solely on their offense and their ability to end up on the right side of a shootout type game. The Air Force offense doesn't set up well for a shootout type game.  Toledo being +16 in the turnover department doesn't hurt our cause either. We'll take the Rockets. Toledo -3

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