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Mississippi State vs. Georgia SEC Football Pick
10/1/11
Safe to say that this is a match up between two SEC hopefuls that expected to be coming into this game with a better record than 2-2. Georgia is 1-1 in conference play while Miss State is 0-2. Georgia opened as a -7.5 point favorite and despite the action being relatively balanced in terms of the amount of bets taken on each side, the line has moved to -6.5. Perhaps an indication of early sharp money on Miss State.
Miss State had huge expectations this year after a 9-4 season a year ago capped by a Bowl win over Michigan, 52-14. It was a year that saw Miss State beat Georgia and lose by just 3 to eventual National Champ Auburn, 17-14. Holding Auburn to 17 was a feat in and of itself. Miss State is loaded with returning starters from that 9-4 team, hence the high expectations.
Miss State opened with a blow out win over Memphis followed by back to back SEC losses to Auburn and LSU before needing overtime to beat La Tech last week, which has some Miss State backers concerned coming into this week.
Georgia knows all about high expectations. They have them every year. Historically, they have delivered, but winning 8 in 2009 and just 6 last season have coach Mark Richt on the college coaching hot seat. Every game is huge. Georgia dropped their first two games, to Boise and then a heartbreaker to South Carolina before bouncing back with wins over Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss.
Both of these teams have had their big offensive moments this year. Georgia had a big day offensively against South Carolina only to lose due to costly mistakes while Miss State piled up over 500 yards on Auburn.
The line on this game has jumped around a bit. Initially it went up from -7.5 to -8 before dropping back down to where it sits now at -6.5. We think Miss State is the way to go here but can't advise playing it at +6.5. So let's hope the see-saw line movement continues and this line drifts back up. In a huge game like this, crucial to both teams, with both teams already having proven their offensive worth, we'd prefer to be taking points. We'll play Miss State at +7 or better.
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