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New Years Day Bowl Game Picks
As fate would have it, we simply ran out of time as far as getting full write ups on all the bowl games posted in time. We did get all of our Key Releases posted, with Ohio State still pending, so here in this write up we will just touch on the rest of the New Years Day Bowl Games. We are not playing these games though. Just opinions.
Ticket City Bowl
Northwestern vs Texas Tech
We were going to use Northwestern as a Key Release. The numbers support a play. This certainly isn't anything close to the Texas Tech teams we are all used to seeing under Mike Leach. They are just an average football team. Any time you have a team like Northwestern getting +9.5 points and going up a against a defense that has been known to give up plenty, you have to take a close look. But we weren't comfortable backing them with the Freshman QB who took over when Persa went down. Opinion - Northwestern +9.5
Penn State vs. Florida
Our score prediction model has Florida winning 25-19. Yards per point numbers favor Penn State as well. It's tempting to take a shot with Penn State here as this one figures to be a good game. Florida was no doubt down a notch or two this year and it doesn't look like all that much seperates these two. Florida has the added emotional edge with Urban Myer stepping down. They'd certainly like to send him off with a big win. Bottom line here for us is that we just didn't feel our edge was enough, so we passed. But we like Penn State here. Opinion Penn State +7
Capital One Bowl
Michigan State vs. Alabama
This one certainly looked as though it had our name written o n it when the matchup was announced and the lines were posted. We love capable, big dogs in games they can certainly win outright. Plus Alabama figures to be less than thrilled about this Bowl while Michigan State will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. Yards per point, which performs well in bowl games like this one, gives the edge to Bama but just by roughly 5 points. However, our score prediction model, which has been deadly accurate down the stretch this year has Alabama winning this one by a score of 28-15 which is enough to keep us on the sidelines for this one. If that changes, we'll let you know before game time.
Mississippi State vs. Michigan
How did these two teams end up playing on New Years Day? This is a game we don't have much interest in. Our numbers favor Miss State here though. Our score prediction model has Miss State winning this one by a score of 34-26. Both teams can score points but Miss State has something Michigan doesn't......a defense. That should be the difference here but this one will likely be a wild game so will steer clear from taking an official position. Opinion Miss State -3.5