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Notre Dame vs. Michigan Football Pick and Betting Analysis
9/10/11
Notre Dame travels to Ann Arbor Saturday to take on Michigan. Notre Dame opened as a 4.5 point road favorite on Sunday night and Michigan money quickly moved the number to -3.5. Both teams are in off games that were delayed due to weather, with Michigan getting the win over Western Michigan after 3 quarters and a Notre Dame falling to South Florida 23-20.
These two teams are in a very similar spot. Michigan with a new coach in Brady Hoke and Notre Dame with Brian Kelly in his 2nd year. They are both loaded with starters from the year before and based on the last two times they have played, are very close in talent. The last two games were both won by Michigan, both by 4 points.
It's tough to get a handle on the two teams after one game, both played in horrendous weather conditions, but you have to take note of the fact that Notre Dame dominated a decent South Florida team statistically, albeit in a losing effort, while Michigan and Western Michigan played a relatively even statistical game. It was turnovers that helped Michigan and turnovers that killed Notre Dame.
Notre Dame is also a year ahead of Michigan as far as the growing pains associated with a new coaching staff. The Notre Dame defense, despite what we saw last week, should be the better unit here and while both offenses figure to be potent this year, again, Notre Dame is a year ahead while Michigan is switching schemes after the Rich Rodriguez years.
With the current line at -3.5 in favor of Notre Dame, we're going to hope in continues to drop as we think Notre Dame is the side here. We'd like to get -3 or less. We think Notre Dame is better on both sides of the ball and will also be a bit more desperate, if that's possible after just one game, in trying to prevent an 0-2 start.
Notre Dame -3 or less
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