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Oklahoma vs. Kansas State Football Pick

10/29/11

The 7-0 and 10th ranked Kansas State Wildcats host the 6-1 and 11th ranked Oklahoma Sooners in a very important Big 12 match up Saturday afternoon at 3:30 pm est. Oklahoma is a hefty -13.5 point road favorite over the undefeated Wildcats with a posted total of 58.5 points.

Most college football observers had already penciled in Oklahoma in the BCS Title game. Enter Texas Tech. The Sooners were 30 point favorites yet found themselves down 31-7 in the 3rd quarter. To their credit, they fought their way back but the damage was already done. Too little too late as Tech held on to win 41-38.

As a handicapper, aside from statistically handicapping games, you also wait for situations to develop that can really put a potential play over the top. These situations, in many cases psychological situations, can have a huge impact on games.

For example, had Oklahoma won convincingly last week over Texas Tech, they'd be favored even more than they already are against Kansas State and they'd likely be 2nd or 3rd in the nation this week. Kansas State would get a chance to play a higher ranked team, with a chance to steal their rating, at home, before a frenzied crowd in front of a national TV audience. For a handicapper, that's like the perfect storm.

Instead, it's Kansas State who is the higher ranked team. It's Oklahoma that's reeling and out to prove last week was a fluke with the potential existing in the back of the minds of some Kansas State players that hey, maybe big bad Oklahoma isn't so good after all. These situations can make all the difference in the world. Oklahoma sleepwalked their way through the first half last week and then some. It happens. But as a handicapper, you were hoping for that to happen THIS week against Kansas State. Instead, Kansas State will have the Sooners undivided attention from the opening gun. That could be a problem.

The feeling here is that there's room for Kansas State here to cover this number. An outright win, not out of the question but not nearly as much on the table as it would have been had our perfect storm developed. Some of the numbers we like to use have Oklahoma has no more than a 7 point favorite here. Our score prediction model has the Sooners by a score of 33-24, a 9 point win. So, room for a cover. As a result, we'll put out Kansas State as an opinion here, but likely nothing stronger. Had our perfect storm developed, this was going to be a Key Release. Instead, this is now comparable to teasing a rabid pit bull. If given the chance, he'll take your head off. Opinion only - Kansas State +13.5

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