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Arizona vs. Oklahoma State College Football Pick With Analysis
9/8/11
Oklahoma State hosts Arizona in prime time on Thursday night as they unfortunately go head to head with the NFL season opener between the Packers and Saints which is also Thursday Night. Oklahoma State opened as a -14 point favorite at 5 Dimes with a total not yet posted as of this writing. The line has since move a half point to -14.5 at most sportsbooks.
Both programs opened up their season last weekend with big wins that were really not going to learn much from. Oklahoma State plastered UL Lafayette 61-34 while Arizona blew out Northern Arizona 41-10.
If you're wondering where the -14 line comes from, look no further than December 29th of 2010. That's when these two teams squared off in the Alamo Bowl with Oklahoma State winning the game as 4 point favorites. The final score was a bit misleading as Arizona actually out gained Oklahoma State 370-312 and had more first downs to the tune of 25-17. Oklahoma State capitalized on turnovers and mistakes and was able to widen the margin.
So the trick to handicapping this game is to determine which team is in better shape this year. Which team is more intact with returning players and so on. If this were the exact same teams personnel wise, we'd be looking to back Arizona. But, that's not the case. It looks to us as though Arizona has many more newer faces and question marks including their entire offensive line.
The Oklahoma State offense, the same one that was the #3 total offense in the land a year ago looks to be completely in tact with the exception of a new offensive coordinator. But QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon picked up right where they left of last year opening week and figure to be just about impossible to stop. The Oklahoma State offense averaged a whopping 44 points per game last year.
On the surface, there's far more questions to be answered at Arizona than there are at Oklahoma State. We aren't in the habit of laying double digits here at Bettorsworld with our Key Releases which is why this game has no chance of making the cut. We aren't about to take +14 with Arizona either until we have a better feel for the team.
Just a lean here but we could certainly see a scenario where this game could get out of hand with Oklahoma State on top. A lean only - Oklahoma State -14.5
Reduced Juice Wagering Lay -105 or LESS Only at 5Dimes.com!