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Oregon Ducks vs. Washington Huskies PAC 12 Football Pick

Betting Line at 5 Dimes - Oregon -15.5 O/U 74

11/5/11

#6 Oregon plays at Washington Saturday in a huge PAC 12 North division game. Why is it huge? It's huge because Washington sits at #3 in the division with a 4-1 conference record behind 5-0 Oregon and 6-0 Stanford. Stanford and Oregon play next week. If Washington were to upset Oregon this week and Stanford falls to Oregon next week, Washington would find itself in a 3 way tie for first in the North!

If you were able to find the definition of a "look ahead game" in the dictionary, in the part where they list examples of such a game, you'd find Oregon at Washington listed. This is an incredibly dangerous spot for Oregon. Oregon cannot escape the fact that it has a highly anticipated date next week with Stanford in an monster of a game. The potential is there for Oregon to be caught looking ahead a bit, especially knowing that Stanford waxed Washington by a 65-21 score.

Washington is no pushover. They lost a shootout at Nebraska, 51-38. They whipped Utah, Cal and Colorado and scored 40 on Hawaii and 42 on Arizona. Other than being held to 21 by Stanford they have scored 30+ every time they took the field this year which always makes for a dangerous underdog when getting +16 points or more.

Of course scoring all those points is a plus. But, giving up buckets of points is obviously a potential problem considering they are up against an offensive machine in the Ducks. Washington gave up 31 to Arizona, 65 to Stanford, 51 to Nebraska and so on.

We will very likely not be playing this game. We are writing this game up mostly as a buyer beware for those of you considering the Ducks this week. On paper, it looks like an Oregon blowout. Our model has Oregon winning by a score of 57-30. You have one of the highest scoring teams in college football going up against a team that ranks 102nd out of 120 teams in points allowed while the Oregon defense is 27th in points allowed. On paper it looks like a mismatch. It looks as if covering a mere 16 points will be cake for the Ducks.

But be careful. It's a whacky time of year with plenty of upsets to come. This will be the biggest home game in Washington in quite some time. Oregon should roll, but we'll stay away. Be careful.  Lean only Oregon -15.5

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