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San Diego State vs. Air Force Pick

10/13/11

So far in 2011 this San Diego State team has been a thorn in our sides. We used them as a Key Release twice this year and lost both times. Sometimes, as a handicapper, you think you find something to sink your teeth into with a team and you ride it for all it's worth. But if you're wrong about the team, it can prove costly to continue riding them.

Air Force hosts San Diego State Thursday night in a revenge affair and the Falcons are a -6.5 home favorite. Last year San Diego State beat Air Force 27-25 behind the arm of QB Lindley and the legs of RB Hillman. In fact, their performance against Air Force is an example of what we saw in this team and why we latched on to them in their two back to back tests against Michigan and TCU but it wasn't to be. Last year against Air Force Lindley threw for 247 yards and 9 yards per completion as Hillman ran for 191 yards. They had 452 total yards but also gave up their share to the Falcons who gained 487 total yards.

Very similar results for these two teams this year. They are both 3-2 on the year and they are both 0-1 in the Mountain West Conference. Both of these teams have been beaten soundly when they stepped up in class. Both teams were beaten by TCU while both teams beat lower class teams for their 3 wins with Air Force beating South Dakota, Tennessee State, and Navy and the Aztecs beating Cal Poly, Army and Washington State.

Our score prediction model has been on fire this year. Last week the model went 9-1 on the plays we posted on our potential blowout and upset page and where the model has really shined has been on underdogs that it predicts to win outright. Last week we only had 3 such plays, but they went 3-0 with two of the three dogs once again winning straight up.

You can see where we are going with this. The model likes San Diego State to win straight up by a score of 34-33. We have already shown a weakness for this Aztec team, latching on to them twice this year, so we'll give them one more try. Hillman and Lindley have been kept quiet for two straight weeks but that should change Thursday night. We think these two teams are fairly even in the talent department so we'll grab all the points we can here. Air Force has the revenge and the home crowd in their favor so we're a little hesitant, but this one should go down to the wire.

Currently their are a couple of +7's on the board, with juice. 5 Dimes has +7 -115 as of this writing Monday morning. Obviously, we'd like to grab +7 or more here. San Diego State +7 or more

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