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Seton Hall vs. Syracuse

Betting Line: Syracuse -13

1/25/11

 

Seton Hall heads to the Carrier Dome tonight to take on Syracuse. While this would be a tall order regardless of the situation, it would be appear be an impossible task tonight. They catch Syracuse off back to back losses after the Orange started the season 18-0. Those back to back losses will drop Syracuse in the rankings so you can expect a statement type of a performance tonight. It doesn't help that Seton Hall is 4-21 all time at the Carrier Dome.

Of course this game isn't about the Seton Hall squads that went 4-21 in past years, it's about this years bunch. Problem is, this years bunch isn't very good. They are 2-6 in Big East play, and 8-12 on the year. What stands out is their play against quality teams. They lost at Cincinnati by 17, at Louisville by 19 and at Pitt by 21. Syracuse on the other hand, beat Cinci at home by 15, Notre Dame by 12 and Michigan State on a neutral floor 14. Against quality teams, Seton Hall comes up short, particularly on the road. Over the last two seasons, Seton Hall is 10-25 ATS against teams with a winning record.

Against the three common opponents they have had this year, Syracuse shot 47% to the Pirates 39%. Those numbers hold up season to date overall as well with Syracuse shooting 48% to Seton Hall's 40%. Seton Hall is also shooting just a tad over 17% from 3 point land against Big East Opponents this year. 

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On the plus side for the Pirates, they get Jeremy Hazell back for this game. He did not play the first time these two met, a close 5 point Syracuse win at Seton Hall. But the bottom line here is that these two teams are night and day. Syracuse is among the class of the Big East and one of the top teams in the nation. Seton Hall is a bottom of the pack Big East team.

What pushes this play over the top is Syracuse having lost two in a row with the last loss being at home. Last season Syracuse lost 3 games during the year. Their first loss was a home loss to Pitt. They rebounded by beating Memphis, at home by 17. The year before they lost to Cleveland State at home. They rebounded with a 22 point win over Canisius. We'd expect a similar rebound tonight. Tonight would figure to be one of the best performances of the year for Syracuse. If we're right about that, than this margin gets extended by a mile in the 2nd half.

Our score prediction model has Syracuse by 16, 73-57, which normally would not be a play for us. However, the circumstances and situations here suggest an even larger margin. Look for Syracuse to make a statement tonight. Syracuse -13

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