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South Carolina vs. Georgia Pick With Analysis
South Carolina and the Ol Ball Coach Mr. Steve Spurrier take on Mark Richt and the Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon in a crucial early season SEC clash. The betting line sits at either South Carolina -2.5 or -3 with low juice (heavy juice on the dog) across the board at all major offshore sportsbooks.
This is a HUGE game between two teams where expectations are sky high for 2011. For Georgia, the expectations are high because they are in off their first losing season in many years, 6-7 last year, in a year that saw them lose several close games. 6-7 could have easily been an 8 or 9 win season with a break here and there. They are already behind the 8 ball after having lost last week to Boise State to kick off the season.
For the Gamecocks, expectations are sky high because many believe this is the best team Spurrier has had in his time at South Carolina. The 2011 schedule for SC looks to be very favorable if they are able to get by games like this one and Florida in late October. It's a schedule loaded with "winnable" games and games they should win.
As predicted, South Carolina stumbled out of the gate last week against East Carolina. They trailed 24-14 at the half and while they were able to come back and win handily in the end, 56-37, they fell short of covering the big number last week.
As we frequently mention, betting is a numbers game. We know, before any lines are posted each week, what numbers we're looking for in any given game. This week for example, we anxiously awaited the posting of the line on this SC-Georgia game. Oddsmakers have surprised us in the past in this series, hanging a -7 in 2008 and 2009, both times favoring Georgia. The 2008 game was a push with a 14-7 final and the 2009 game was a pointspread win for the underdog South Carolina, a 41-37 loser.
If they surprised us again with a high number, we'd be there to pounce on the dog. But no such luck as the line comes in under a field goal and therefore presents us with very little value.
Georgia has won 7 of the last 9 in this series with most of the games being low scoring affairs. When these two hook up you can expect a close dogfight in most cases. We favor the underdog Bulldogs here in a game that puts them in a pretty desperate spot early on. There's just not enough value in the line for us to bite.
Small Opinion - Georgia +3 -115 at 5 Dimes
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