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Sugar Bowl Pick

Michigan vs. Virginia Tech

1/3/12

Two high profile programs, Michigan and Virginia Tech, will square off in the Sugar Bowl on Tuesday, January 3rd. Michigan opened as a -1 point favorite at betonline and now currently sits at -3 as it's been all Michigan at the betting windows. The posted total is 51. The two programs have never played each other.

What really stands out when looking at this game, between two teams who had great years and put up some nice stats on both sides of the ball, is that neither team played much of a schedule. When they did step up in class, they either lost, or squeaked by. This game is so interesting because if you look at the schedules, each of these teams would classify as a step up in class for the other.

Most of our methods have this game anywhere from a toss up to Michigan by 2 points. Which would generally be reason enough to lean towards Tech here at +3. Tech would also be where the value lies and it would also be a nice go against the public spot.

But we did want to point out our score prediction models results here because it comes up with a significant difference for both the side and total, which is worth pointing out. The model likes Michigan by a score of 23-15, which would put it solidly on the Wolverines and the under 51.

So as a result, we'd consider 2 small plays here. Michigan -2.5 or less, if the line comes back down and Under 51.

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