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TCU vs. Boise State Football Pick with Analysis

11/12/11

The BCS scene is getting shaky, and maybe, just maybe the Boise State Broncos (8-0) could play for a BCS Title. First, they need to take down TCU (7-2). Second, they will have to hope luck shines on them and other teams lose. The Broncos opened as a 15.5 point favorite and are down to 15 in most shops. The total is 58 points.

Boise State's offense starts with superstar QB Kellen Moore. He's done just about everything a QB can do in his stint with the Broncos. Last year ended on a bad note and he has played like a man on fire to get this team going all year long. Thus far in 2011 he's passed for 2,229 yards and 29 TDs while giving up only 5 INTs. The TCU secondary has proved vulnerable at times and he could set them ablaze with a good game.

TCU's MO has really changed this year. They have gone from a shut down defense team to the 8th highest scoring team in the FBS. They have lost games to Baylor and SMU and their only good win was against BYU. Let's face it, this team doesn't really have a "good" win. Despite that, these two teams have a strong history and if they are at all able to do so the proud Horned Frogs will keep this game close.

With Andy Dalton tearing up the NFL, Casey Pachall is leading TCU. He's got 1,940 passing yards and 19 TDs so far this year. The sophomore looked great in defeat against Baylor passing for 4 TDs in his first game as the starter. He faces his biggest test yet in the form of Boise State, but the kid has a gun and could succeed.

We'll be rooting for TCU this week, and San Diego State next week against Boise. It's no secret to our readers that we have a big problem with Boise State being in the hunt for a National Title each year with the pathetically easy schedule they play. This week and next will be their toughest games out of the last 3, so we can only hope for the upset.

Our model likes Boise here by a score of 40-23, however, we find ourselves disagreeing with the model over the last two weeks. We're not so sure there's all that much separating these teams. They are even in many statistical categories with the exception being pass defense, where Boise ranks 5th in the nation and TCU is in the middle of the pack at 61. TCU has proven they go toe to toe and they can certainly put points on the board. Take note of the fact that these two teams both beat Air Force by similar scores. We'd love to see this line climb even higher. The public is all over Boise State here with 88% of the wagers thus far coming in on the Broncos but we're going to go the other way. TCU +15 or more

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