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Texas A&M vs. Texas A&M Big 12 Football Pick with Analysis

11/12/11

 This was supposed to be the year for Texas A&M (5-4). QB Ryan Tannehill along with the entire offense is back and the defense also projected to be very strong. 9 games and blown leads against Oklahoma State, Arkansas and Missouri later, this team has only 5 wins. They are struggling and desperate for a win. They are 4 point favorites against Kansas State (7-2). The Wildcats have dropped 2 in a row after getting off to their fastest start in 12 years.

The Aggies are a -4.5 road favorite here with a total of 64 points at most online sportsbooks.

The Aggies have lost their last two games to Missouri and Oklahoma. The defense has struggled mightily and will have to improve in this game. The offense is doing well on the ground with Cyrus Gray who has rushed for 733 yards and 7 TDs. Christine Michael has been even better with 899 yards and 9 TDs. QB Ryan Tanehill looked terrible against the Sooners, but on the whole he is having a decent year. He ripped Baylor up and passed for a whopping 6 TDs in mid October.

Junior QB Collin Klein runs the show for the Kansas State Wild Cats. He is a brilliant runner and has carved up opposing defenses for 906 yards and 19 TDs this year. He can sling the ball as well as proved by 1,223 passing yards and 9 TDs. This team has never had problems scoring, but like the Aggies, their defense has been weak at times. Stopping the two headed beast of Michael and Gray will be no easy task, but they must do it to win this game.

These two teams are just about dead even in most statistical categories. They are 18th and 19th in the nation in rushing, they are 12th and 23rd against the run and neither can stop the pass, ranking 120th and 117th. But the glaring difference is in the offensive passing game where Texas A&M ranks 11th in the nation and Kansas State ranks 112th.

Against common opponents Kansas State is 3-2 while A&M is 2-3 with the biggest difference being the way Oklahoma blew out Kansas State. But all in all, similar performances against common opponents. It seems likely that these two will trade points all afternoon with the deciding factor being turnovers.  That's one category where Kansas State has a huge edge at +11 on the year while A&M is -10. That's a difference of 21 for those keeping track at home.

Our model says 39-36 with Texas A&M on top, which simply goes along with the type of back and forth game we think this will be. In that type of a game, we'll gladly take any points available with the home dog. Kansas State +4.5

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