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Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma Big 12 Football Pick
11/5/11
Oklahoma hosts Texas A&M on Saturday in a game that would have been much bigger had A&M held up their end of the bargain by winning last week. Instead, Texas A&M faces a must win situation this week if they are to have even a remote chance in the Big 12. As it is, they'll need to win out and get some help which isn't likely. The Sooners opened as a 14.5 point favorite at 5 Dimes but the early betting action has taken that number down to +13 as bettors feel Texas A&M's ability to put points on the board keeps them in this one.
For Oklahoma, the mission is clear. Win the rest of the way, convincingly, and hope for the remaining undefeated teams to fall. We know one of those teams will fall this weekend, as Alabama and LSU do battle. We also know that Oklahoma will get a crack at another one of the unbeatens, as they play Oklahoma State in the final game of the year. The bottom line is that Oklahoma is still alive in the National Title hunt. The two key words though are "win" and "convincingly".
There's one logical argument to make for Texas A&M this week. They went toe to toe with, and beat, Texas Tech 45-40. Texas Tech went toe to toe with, and beat Oklahoma, 41-38. Makes sense to think that as a result, Texas A&M can go toe to toe with Oklahoma and at the very least cover the big number. Hey, who knows, maybe even win.
But we probably shouldn't be making a call based on each teams performance against Texas Tech. That's one game. If instead, we look at the entire body of work for both teams this year, we see an Oklahoma team that has pretty much been able to contain every team they played, holding everyone but Missouri to 17 points or less while scoring 38+ against everyone but Florida State. Texas A&M on the other hand, can score points but really hasn't been able to stop a good offense all year.
Revenge may come into play as well this week. Texas A&M upset the Sooners last year 33-19, one of only two losses in a 12-2 season. That came after the Sooners beat A&M by scores of 65-10, 66-28 and 42-14 the previous 3 times they played. When you factor in the fact that A&M was devastated after last weeks loss, and the fact that there is plenty of incentive for the Sooners to not only win, but win by a large margin, it could be a real tough spot for the Aggies this week.
This one may be close for a time, but the Sooners should prove to be too much for the Aggies as this game moves along. Too much firepower and a much better defensive unit for Oklahoma. We have the Sooners by 25, 49-25. Oklahoma -13
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