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Troy vs. Florida International Tuesday Night Football Pick

10/25/11

Florida Atlantic hosts Troy in a Sun Belt Conference match up on Tuesday Night. Florida International is currently a -6.5 point favorite with no total posted as of Monday morning. This is a must win game for both teams as they both come in at 1-2 in conference play and are chasing the leaders, Arkansas State at 3-0, La Lafayette at 4-1 and Western Kentucky at 3-1. Obviously, there's no room for error for either team.

Troy has held the upper hand in this series but this year they have a little revenge motive working for them as they were beaten by a score of 52-35 last season, on their home field by FIU.

It's safe to say bigger things were expected from both of these teams this year, with Troy going 8-5 and FIU 7-6 a year ago and both returning health numbers of starters this year. But so far, it's been a mixed bag. Troy has played the more difficult schedule with games against Clemson and Arkansas and the Arkansas loss was by only 10. FIU on the other hand, beat Louisville and while Louisville certainly doesn't rank up there with Clemson, the Cardinals do have one of the better defensive un its in the country and FIU managed to score 24 points in that game in a 24-17 win.

We're not really interested in playing this game in the real world, but as a side note, our score prediction model has been very good with the added games this year, at least up until this past weekend. Most of the added games have been Sun Belt games. The reason, we feel, that the model has performed well in these games is because it does a good job at factoring in schedule strength. These Sun Belt teams play a schedule that's all over the map at times, playing MAC teams one week and an ACC team the next, and so on. So, what you see on paper, statistically, not always indicative of the true strengths and weakness of these teams.

We like to stress the point that the model only plays a small role in our handicapping process. But, in this spot, we'll hang our hat on the models prediction as we really have nothing else to go on and the model does suggest a wide margin here with a predicted score of 34-19 Florida International. FIU is already a veteran of these Tuesday night affairs having lost to Arkansas State last Tuesday so we'll call for a better result this time around. Florida International -6.5

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