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Uconn vs. Louisville

Big East Pick

2/6/12

The UCONN Huskies travel to Louisville to take on the Cardinals without their coach, Jim Calhoun who is on medical leave with spinal stenosis. Calhoun taking time off during the season is nothing new for the Huskies. In fact, it's almost a yearly occurrence for the old timer. While reports say he may be out for the year, we're confident Calhoun will return soon. In the meantime, the Huskies are 4 point underdogs to Louisville, down a half point from the opener.

UCONN is 5-5 in conference play and 15-7 overall while Louisville is 6-4 and 18-5. UCONN would be tournament bound if the big dance started today, but really hasn't got much wiggle room. They had lost 4 straight until knocking off Seton Hall on Saturday. A road win over Louisville would go a long way towards the Huskies tournament resume.

Stats that matter:

UCONN Road FG% - 41%
Louisville Home FG% - 44%

UCONN Road Opponents FG% - 40%
Louisville Home Opponents FG% - 37%

UCONN Total Rebounds - 38
Louisville Total Rebounds - 39

UCONN Last 5 ATS - 1-4
Louisville Last 5 ATS - 4-1
**Last 5 ATS is a good indicator of the publics perception of a given team. Bad results may indicate an overrated team.

Recent Straight up results:

UCONN - Lost 4 of last 5
Louisville - Won 4 straight and 5 of last 6

Our Models score prediction - Louisville 65 UCONN 60

Bottom Line - UCONN looks to be up against it tonight. They face a hot Louisville team that is 14-2 at home and while UCONN has won on the road at Notre Dame and South Florida, their road performance in general leaves a lot to be desired. They have lost to some mediocre to bad teams on the road by much larger margins than tonight's number.

Interestingly enough, when we run our model using only the last 5 games, we still come up with the same predicted 5 point margin only in that scenario, the model points towards a potential play on the under 130. As far as the side goes, this game will be a pass for us but the value looks to be on Louisville minus the spot and that value will increase the more the line drops. At Louisville -3 we may become interested.

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