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Utah State vs. BYU College Football Pick

9/30/11

BYU hosts Utah State on Friday Night as 8 point home favorites, down slightly from the opener of -9 as the early money favors Utah State. Last week Utah State was a "hot" side as bettors moved the line on the Utah State vs. Colorado State game from -6 all the way up to -12.5. What happened? No surprise, Utah State lost 35-34, along with all of the bettors who jumped on the band wagon.

But last weeks loss could be a good thing for bettors still interested in the Utah State side. Imagine what the line would be if Utah State won last week? Imagine what the line would be if Utah State won convincingly?

Utah State remains a bit of a mystery. They haven't won more than 4 games in any season over the last 10 years. But just as they started this year off by almost knocking off national champ Auburn, they started last year off by almost knocking off Oklahoma, losing just 31-24 and they DID beat these BYU Cougars by a score of 31-16. But they also got blown away by San Diego State, Hawaii and Boise State and squeaked by San Jose by 4. They have a recent history of rising to the occasion now and then against good teams before slipping back into mediocrity in other games.

Many thought this BYU offense had the potential to be explosive this year, with 10 returning starters to an offense that seemed to be making strides at times during the 2010 season, but that simply has not materialized in 2011. They scored 14, 16 and 10 in their first 3 games and it took special teams and a 93 yard kick return to score a TD and set up another. Central Florida piled up 400 yards of offense including over 300 through the air while also averaging 6 yards per play and 10 yards per pass play.

The Utah State Aggies don't get many chances to be under the bright lights of a National TV audience. Performing well in a spot like this means the world to any program, especially one looking to make a names for themselves. But the bottom line for us here is that we just don't feel as though BYU has given us enough reason to trust them laying 8 points against anyone. Even going back to last year, if you take away games against UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State, teams everyone scores 40+ on, the BYU offense pretty much sputtered.

We'll back the Utah State Aggies here and take advantage of the bonus points we're getting as a result of last weeks results. Utah State +8

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