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Tennessee vs. Florida SEC Football Pick with Betting Line Analysis

9/17/11

Tennessee visits Florida Saturday to play the Gators as sizable 9 point underdogs at SBG Global and +9.5 dogs at 5 Dimes. This is a match up that for most of the last decade was marquee, but in recent years has lost some luster due to Tennessee's inability to hold up their end of the bargain. 2 of the last 3 years have seen 5 and 6 win seasons for the Vols.

But this matchup may very well be on it's way back to marquee status. The Vols are headed in the right direction, no question. This is a team that, a year ago, started loads of young, unproven players and they took their lumps as a result. But it's a talented group and one that is going to continue to get better and better. While they were hammered against the upper class last year, losing big to Georgia, Alabama and Oregon for example, they did manage to finish the year with 4 straight wins before losing in OT to North Carolina in the Music City Bowl. They kicked off this season with 2 wins, first over Montana and then last week having no problem at all with Cincinnati.

The Gators had problems of their own a  year ago. They were 8-5 and they too, were spanked a few times against the upper class. Alabama, South Carolina and Florida State all plastered Florida last year, not to mention losing to Miss State in the swamp.  Even when they met Tennessee last year it was just a 7-3 game at the half with the Gators doing all their damage in a 17 point 3rd quarter.

Tennessee QB Tyler Bray has completed 78.55 of his passes in his first two games with 698 yards, 7 touchdown passes and no interceptions. Can you say live dog? The Vols are going to be a threat to anyone they face as they get better each week. They get Florida at what may be a vulnerable time with new coach Will Muschamp in his first big test of the year, both teams 1st SEC game.

We'll keep an eye on the number here. Florida opened -8.5 and has climbed to -9.5 despite 7445 of the betting action so far coming in on the Vols. Usually a sign of sharp action on the other side. Just the same, sharp bettors will only play that side to a point where it loses it's value. At which point, the value would switch to the Tennessee side which is where we'd become interested. Tennessee +10 or more (if it gets there)

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