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Week 5 NFL Picks Against the Spread

10/9/11

 

Chiefs at Colts - If the Colts keep this up, they'll land Andrew Luck. Can you imagine that! But they'll have to compete with these Chiefs for him. These teams are bad. Statistically, the Chiefs are worse, despite winning last week. We'll lay the deuce. Colts -2

 

Cardinals at Vikings - Another couple of teams in the running for Andrew Luck. Neither of these two are the types of teams you want to invest your money in. Since we're forced to make a pick here, we'll side with the home team. Vikings -2.5

 

Eagles at Bills - Hey wait! The Eagles have a shot at Luck as well as they weigh in at 1-3! Of all the winless, or one win teams, the Eagles look the best. At times anyways. There have been times this year where the Eagles have looked as though they can beat anyone. Not frequently enough unfortunately. These two teams are very close statistically speaking. The yards per point numbers tell the story. For Philly, despite averaging just about the same amount of yardage offensively as the Bills, they aren't converting those yards into points. Likewise defensively. A yards per point line here would be Buffalo by 10! Turnovers finish telling the story. Eagles -6, Bills +7. Wrong team favored. Bills +3 -120

 

Raiders at Texans - One of the most intriguing games of the week. The Texans look to be for real. But keep in mind that their 3 wins came against teams that have had difficulty moving the ball. Their loss came against the Saints, who have no such difficulty. The Raiders have no problem moving the ball either. Statistically speaking, the glaring difference here is the 31st ranked Raiders defense in points allowed, along with their ranking of 29th against the run, going up against the #4 rushing team in the NFL. But the Raiders field the #1 rushing attack behind McFadden which may be enough to keep this one close. This one has last second field goal written all over it. Raiders +6 if you can get it.

 

Saints at Panthers - As a result of having the worst team in the NFL last season, and starting a rookie QB, the Panthers lines have been inflated so far this year and as a result, the Panthers have covered every game. The line is starting to catch up to them though as the Panthers and Newton are holding their own and actually have some decent numbers, such as tied with the Saints at #3 in passing yards per game as well as #6 against the pass defensively. But their offensive yards per point number of 19 puts them towards the basement in that category which is not where you want to be trying to match points against a Drew Brees led offense. Panthers are 31st against the run which will open things up even more for Brees through the air. Inflation is down. Time to buck the Panthers. Saints -6.5

 

Bengals at Jags - Ok, so, we were discussing yards per point numbers. Who is the worst in the NFL offensively? The Jags, with a 27. They simply can't score. The Bengals rank 6th in points allowed, 7th against the run and 3rd against the pass. You should always use caution betting the NFL when something looks too easy and the Jags defense isn't bad. But we have to back the better team here. Bengals +2

 

Titans at Steelers - Another case of the wrong team being favored. Who the Steelers used to be, is still being factored into the line here. Titans defense #1 in points allowed at 14 points per game. Steelers offense #27 at 16 points per game. The Steelers are banged up and getting old. The defense is still a formidable one though, which likely brings this game down to the wire. Can't pass up the points. Make sure you get the hook here as that may be the difference. Titans +3..5 -120 or better  (note Steelers -10 in turnover margin - worst in NFL)

 

Seahawks at Giants - Giants are 3-1 and lucky to be there. Seahawks are 0-4, right where they belong. Seahawks lost by scores of 33-17 and 24-0 in their two road games this year with even the 16 points per game Steelers finding the end zone. In the real world, we wouldn't lay over a touchdown in most NFL games. In this spot, for the sake of making a prediction, we'll take the Giants as long as it's less than -10. Giants -9.5

 

Bucs at 49ers - two pleasant surprises so far this year. Bucs 7 points from being 4-0 while the Niners are a field goal from the same. Bucs off a short week of prep having played Monday Night and now fly across the country. That's enough for us. 49ers -2.5 -115 (49ers +8 in turnover margin)

 

Jets at Patriots - Jets playing 3rd straight on the road. Brady hates the Jets. Pats want revenge for last year's home playoff loss. The Jets are a field goal away from being 1-3. Jets have gotten away from the identity Ryan initially brought to the team. They now rank 30th in the NFL rushing the football. If this is going to be Brady vs. Sanchez airing it out, we'll take Brady every time despite the Jets ranking 2nd against the pass and the Pats ranking 32nd.. There's lots of talk about the Patriots poor defense. But, they still sport a yards per point number of 19 defensively which is one of the better numbers in the NFL (Jets are 13). Everything points towards the Patriots here, but laying big numbers in the NFL is always dangerous. If you like to play teasers, use the Pats here bringing them down to -2 as we simply don't see them losing here. Otherwise, we have to take the points if the number reaches 10. Jets +10 or more

 

Chargers at Broncos - Chargers are 3-1 but those wins against the Chiefs, Vikings and Dolphins. Broncos are 1-3, but two of those losses by a field goal to good Titans and Raiders teams. Chargers appear to be a middle of the pack team at this point. Even last year this was a 33-28 game in Denver and the Chargers simply seem down a notch. So, we'll call for the upset but be careful, Broncos far from elite. Broncos +3.5

 

Packers at Falcons - Speaking of teams that don't appear to be what they were a year ago, the Falcons appear to be down a notch. It was these Super Bowl Champ Packers who torched these Falcons in the playoffs last year with Rodgers going 31/36 for 336 yards. What could save the Falcons here is the Packers defense which is giving up 24 points per game. This game will determine the Falcons season. We'll give them one more shot - Falcons +6

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