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Week 7 NFL Picks and Analysis

10/23/11

Wow. Time flies. We're already at week 7 in the NFL. In the AFC it looks like the Pats, Ravens and maybe the Bills are the cream of the crop while over in the NFC it's the defending Super Bowl Champ Packers emerging as the dominant team. We'll see how it all plays out but you can stick a fork in many of the NFL teams at this point. On to this weeks picks.

 

Bears at Bucs - Both teams bounced back from losses nicely last week but the feeling here is that the Bears are the slightly better team offensively. Evidence of that can be seen in their yards per point number of 13.5 on offense compared to 18.5 of the Bucs. Bears -1

 

Redskins at Panthers - Panthers are in every game and are only going to keep getting better but the Skins defense is for real and should be the difference here. Wrong team is favored. Redskins +2.5

 

Chargers at Jets - Chargers look to be the better team on paper if you look at all of the traditional stats but those numbers don't tell the whole story. The Jets have faced Dallas, Oakland, Baltimore and New England. The Chargers have faced New England, and then Vikings, Chiefs, Dolphins and Broncos and failed to dominate any of them. Jets did dominate the two cupcakes they faced, Jags and Dolphins. Jets yards per point number on offense a very good 12 while Chargers are a very bad 17. Chargers also bad defensively with a 13 to the Jets modest 15. Jets +3 in turnover margin, Chargers -5. Yards per point line would be Jets by 9 yet they are a home dog? Good enough for us. Jets +1.5

 

Seahawks at Browns - Not much to like with a couple of 2 win teams. We'll take any points available here. With the Browns, you always have to worry whether they can score enough to win. Seattle, after a slow start offensively, scored 28 and 36 the last two games. Seahawks +3

 

Texans at Titans - The Texans have dropped 3 of their last 4 after a promising start and are banged up. The 3-2 Titans are 2-0 at home with a 26-13 win over the Ravens. But lackadaisical performances against the Jags and Broncos and last weeks loss to the Steelers has us looking to take points here despite the injuries. Texans have been in every game but one and are the more desperate of the two. Texans +3.5

 

Broncos at Dolphins - Yuck. 1 win vs. no wins. Sooner or later the Dolphins are likely to win a game, although they would benefit far more if they continued to lose and were able to snag Andrew Luck in the draft. Can't trust the fish as favorites, even this small. We'll take Tebow +1.5 in his return to Florida.

 

Falcons vs. Lions - The line on this game more of a reflection of who the Falcons were than who they currently are. Lions are the better team here and need to bounce back from their first loss. We'd make this line Lions -7 which gives us plenty of wiggle room here. Lions -3 -120

 

Chiefs at Raiders - This line makes no sense. Yeah, divisional rivals with a storied history, but the Chiefs are just plain lousy. Any way we know of to make a line, and we know of a few, has the right line here at anywhere from -7 to -10. Of course that's not considering the QB situation with the Raiders as Jason Campbell is out and the Raiders have acquired Carson Palmer. It shouldn't matter. We'll lay the small spot. Raiders -4.5

 

Steelers at Cardinals - These Steelers are not even close to what they used to be. They've won two in a row but got by the Jags by only 4. The Steelers are just 1-2 on the road with their only win being a 3 point decision over the Colts. They can still play some defense but we don't trust them as a road fav here. Cardinals +3.5

 

Rams at Cowboys - Cowboys are 2-3 with their wins coming by margins of 2 and 3, while their 3 losses were by 3, 4 and 4. In their defense, they have played the Jets, 49ers, Skins, Lions and Pats, all formidable opponents. The Rams schedule hasn't exactly been a cakewalk but at the same time their numbers on the year are some of the worst we have ever seen. Averaging 10 points per game, a yards per point number of 31.5 offensively, wow! Anything less than a double digit win here and the Cowboys may as well pack it in. One model we use to predict NFL scores has Dallas 29-10. Sounds about right.  Cowboys -12.5

 

Packers at Vikings - Green Bay is a serious contender to get back to the Super Bowl while the Vikings appear to be a mess. Christian Ponder gets the start for the Vikings. Ponder vs. Rodgers, who would YOU take? But it's more than just the QB position. The Packers are the real deal while the Vikings lost to the Bucs and Chiefs and were blown out by the Bears last week. Packers -8

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