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Western Michigan vs. Miami Ohio Pick
11/16/11
Defending MAC Champ Miami Ohio hosts Western Michigan on Wednesday night in MAC game that still has importance for both teams. For Miami Ohio, they are still alive in the MAC East division at 3-3 behind 4-2 Ohio and 4-3 Temple. For Western Michigan, they are pretty much done as far as the MAC West goes at 3-3, but they are 5-3 overall and still have a shot a making it to a bowl game which is among every college football teams goals coming into the season. With just two games left, this one, and next week against Akron, the importance becomes magnified. They may very well need 7 wins to get a bowl invitation
Miami Ohio is currently a -2 point home favorite with no total posted as of Monday afternoon.
When you handicap a game, you're looking for, hopefully, a significant difference between your number and the posted line, in order to qualify a game as an official play. In this instance, all of the methods we use have this game pretty much a toss up. Our model has Western Michigan winning a 27-26 decision.
With a team like Western Michigan, you never want to be in a position of laying significant points. The potential for that back door cover is always on the table with a defense like the one Western Michigan fields each week, giving up on average 30 points per game. But in this spot, the pointspread really isn't a factor. You're basically just being asked to pick the winner of this game.
We like our chances here with Western Michigan simply from the standpoint of offensive power alone. In otherwords, Western Michigan is going to score their points, but can Miami Ohio match them score for score, for 60 minutes? We don't think so. Sure, Miami Ohio put up 41 and 35 points in back to back weeks a few weeks ago, but that came against Buffalo and Akron. Otherwise, you're looking at 20 points per game or less. Western Michigan has scored 38+ 6 times this year.
We'd compare this one to the Toledo game for Miami Ohio, a 49-28 loss. Toledo simply had too much offense. By comparison, Western Michigan lost a 66-63 shootout to Toledo, with only the clock, and the fact that they ran out of time, stopping them. Throw in the added desperation of needing at least one more win, maybe two for a bowl invite and we think this is a good spot for the Broncos. This is a play on the Western Michigan offense. Western Michigan +2
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