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Wisconsin vs. Ohio State College Football Pick with Analysis

10/29/11

Ohio State hosts Wisconsin on Saturday night at 8 pm est. in a game that can be seen on ESPN. The Buckeyes are a 7 point home underdog with a posted total of 51. The line opened Wisconsin -7.5 and rose up to -8 briefly before settling back down at 7 in most spots.

Well, mighty Wisconsin fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week which was no surprise to us. We had picked Michigan State in that game and had it on our list of potential key releases. Unfortunately, we never pulled the trigger. We see this every year in college football. A team gets out to a fast start, scores buckets of points against weak opposition and vaults to the top of the rankings only to get hammered back to earth when they step up in class.

But that's not to say this Wisconsin team isn't a good one. They are. Against weak opponents or not, they can move the football as they proved against a very good Michigan State defense and their own defense hadn't given up more than 17 points in any one game all year until last week.

This game is intriguing as Ohio State has been getting whacked around by most college football observers all year, including us, yet, in certain aspects of their game, they're actually pretty damn good. They rank 12th in the nation in points allowed, 41st rushing the ball, 28th against the run and 23rd against the pass. Their yards per point number defensively is a very good 19 and their ypp number offensively is actually a decent 14. Yeah, their offense has been pretty bad but this tells us they make use of their yards. Case in point, they are 18 of 21 in the red zone this year.

Of course, unfortunately for the Buckeyes, the Badgers rank higher in all of the categories mentioned above. 5th in points scored, 6th in points allowed, 9th rushing, 36th passing (Ohio State 115th passing), 35th against the run and 4th against the pass. Yards per point of 21 on defense and a blistering 10 on offense.

Ohio State has revenge working for them as well as a home crowd of 105,000 screaming maniacs dressed in red who will be even more pumped because the game is in prime time on ESPN. This, along with a very good defense can give the Buckeyes a shot here, similar to the Ohio State/Michigan State game.

That being said, we still have to go with the Badgers here at anything less than a touchdown. It's goes back to the same old thing here. There's a major mismatch at QB with Russell Wilson for the Badgers and on offense in general. At times this Ohio State offense, regardless of who was at QB, has looked like the keystone cops. Laughable. One dimensional. They can't throw the ball as it is now they face the #4 passing defense in the country. The way Nebraska put points on the board in the 2nd half against the Buckeyes was scary. I wouldn't want to be backing Ohio State in a spot where you need them to come from behind because it's simply not going to happen.

We come up with a predicted score if 25-14 Wisconsin, so, closer than we'd like when laying a touchdown but Wisconsin looks to be the only way to go here. Yeah, the public likes Wisconsin as well, so, count us among the public in this one. Wisconsin -7

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