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In the matter of a week, the line changed rather quickly for this game. TCU's starting QB for the first four games of the season, Casey Pachall, is no longer on the team. After getting arrested on suspicion of DWI, he decided to take a leave from the team for treatment. Freshman Trevone Boykin will be starting for the Horned Frogs for the time being. This leaves Baylor as more than touchdown favorites at home. The Bears are scoring over 54 points per game and are averaging the most passing yards in the country. Guess they don't miss RGIII all that much.
These teams are almost opposite as Baylor is great on offense, but terrible on defense. TCU allows just over 13 points per game, but will struggle on offense with Boykin. The all-time series between these teams is deadlocked at 50-50-7. TCU has won and covered in three of the last four meetings. In last year's shootout, Pachall and RGIII went back and forth as the Bears came away with a 50-48 win. The Horned Frogs have not scored more than 23 points in two Big 12 games thus far.
In Boykin's first start, he did manage 270 yards and a touchdown, but completed 57.5 percent of his passes and had three interceptions. Pachall had just one interception in his first four games. TCU ran the ball 43 times last week trying to limit Boykin's attempts, but they eventually had to let him loose to get back in the game in a 37-23 loss at Iowa State. That led to a game-ending pick six for ISU. Against Baylor, Boykin will have to attempt a ton of passes once again. Wide receivers Brandon Carter and Josh Boyce will have to step up big to help Boykin as much as possible. Usually, the Horned Frogs offense goes through the running game which has been led by Matthew Tucker, but he missed last week's game due to an ankle injury. He's probable to play this weekend. Boykin can also move on his feet, as he's rushed for 161 yards on the year.
The Horned Frogs have a chance because Baylor's defense is really bad. They have not given up under 23 points yet and are 119th in the nation in points against per game.
The Bears are 3-1 because of their offense, though. In four games, Nick Florence already has 1,585 yards and 16 touchdowns, however, his five interceptions over the last three games are worrisome. Wide receiver Terrance Williams leads the team and is one of the best in the country. He's coming off a 17 reception, 314 yard and 2 TD performance at West Virginia and will be the main focus for TCU's defense. Even with a top passing game, the Bears still run the ball a bit. Jarred Salubi and Glasco Martin have combined for 116 carries, 477 yards and seven TDs. This high-powered offense is tough for anyone to stop and TCU is coming off a home loss in which they allowed 37 points at home to Iowa State.
The Horned Frogs have won six straight games against the spread following a bye week while the Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. Most of the numbers point to the over in this game. In TCU's last 12 games following a bye week, the over is 11-1. In Baylor's last 26 games overall the over is 20-5-1.
Our model predicted a 40-29 final in favor of Baylor here and that's as if there was no QB change for TCU. With the QB change, the only thing that would change is TCU's offensive production, which will likely be lower. TCU has some nice numbers but those numbers come against a schedule that is at least a touchdown weaker than Baylor's. Baylor -9
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