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Cincinnati

vs.

Virginia Tech

9/29/12

Cincinnati and Virginia Tech will square off at 3:30 pm est. Saturday at Fedex Field in Landover, a game that is listed as a home game for the Bearcats but one that will see more Hokies fans. Virginia Tech is currently a -6.5 point favorite at Betonline and 5 Dimes and the early betting action at sportsbook.ag shows 94% of the wagers coming in on the Tech side.

Virginia Tech has 4 games under it's belt and a 3-1 record while the jury is still out on Cinci who had a bye week 1, played two games and then had another bye last week. The Bearcats sit a 2-0 but one of those wins was against Delaware State and only by a 23-7 margin. Their other win was more significant as they defeated Pitt, the very same team who handed the Hokies their only loss thus far.

An early storyline in this game could be the Tech offense vs. the Cinci defense. Virginia Tech has already allowed 8 sacks this year after only giving up 22 all of last year. That's significant this week because Cincinnati was #2 in the nation last season in sacks and already has 8 through 2 games. (and most of that defense is intact from last season)

The other storyline will be Cincinnati QB Munchie Legaux and the sloppy offensive play of the Bearcats. They turned the ball over 6 times last week against Delaware State with Legaux responsible for 4 of them. How will Legaux and the Bearcats offense hold up against a Frank Beamer defense? Beamer has been the head man at Virginia Tech for 26 years and most of those 26 years you'll find the Hokies with a positive turnover margin.

Those of you who have read our stuff for many years, know we love to take a look at yards per point numbers. Well, early in the year, they can be useless, which would be true in the case of Cincinnati, having only played the two games. You need at least 4 games of data and then, preferably, no cupcakes on the schedule, in order to get a true reading. Tech almost makes it. They have played 4 games, and 3 of those were legitimate opponents with Austin Peay being the cupcake. The Hokies YPP numbers are right where you'd expect them to be, a 12.6 on offense and a 22 on defense. Solid on both sides of the ball. The Bearcats YPP numbers are off the charts. But again, just two games have been played. Those numbers will come back down to earth in a hurry over the next couple of weeks, starting right here with this game.

So as far as Cinci goes, we're forced to do a little guessing. We really don't know what we have yet. We have a little better of an idea with the Hokies and with the exception of stumbling in the Pitt game, it looks like yet another solid Frank Beamer team. A team that should continue to improve in those areas that have shown weakness early on, particularly the offensive line.

There's no guessing when it comes to the two head coaches though and that's where we are going with this selection. We'll take Frank Beamer over Butch Jones every time. When you factor in that Beamer and his Hokies have 4 games under their belts already while the Bearcats have just 2, with one being Delaware State, it solidifies our position. Look for Munchie Legaux to have a rough night against this Tech defense. We'll go ahead and join "the public" in this spot and we'll back the Hokies. Virginia Tech -6.5

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