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4/5/12

This year we will offer our MLB picks daily from April thru the end of June. After a break around the 4th of July, we'll then turn our attention to the almighty football season.

Our approach to baseball is simple. Make a better line than the oddsmakers post and the betting public molds, and bet accordingly. Are we successful at it? Some years, fantastically so. Other years, not so much. We have had some huge winning seasons. We have had many years of small profits or losses and yes, we have had a few seasons where we have done poorly.

Our method - We make our own line by combining two methods. The first is a simulation program. We simulate each game thousands of times, running the starting pitchers through the posted line ups. The results of the simulations give us a line. If a team wins 53% of the thousands of games we simulate, they would be a -110 favorite.

The 2nd method is a method of making a baseball line that we have used for over 20 years that takes into account all aspects of the game and assigns the appropriate weight to each factor, i.e. pitching, hitting, bullpens, etc. The end result is a line that most often, doesn't differ all that much from our simulation line.

We get a final line by combining the two methods. We then use common sense to arrive at our selections. We'll play the games where there is a large enough difference between our line and the lines available from many sportsbooks, providing there are no other obvious red flags. For example, we'll avoid betting against hot teams or betting on cold teams. There are many other situations we look to avoid. Again, it's common sense.

Remember, we are NOT trying to predict winners of MLB games. We are trying to price the games accurately. If we do a better job of making a line than the oddsmakers and public, we'll make a profit. It's crucial that you understand that concept if you're to have any success wagering on baseball (or any sport for that matter. If we take +140 on a game, we're not saying that +140 team is going to win. We're saying that the +140 team should probably be +120 or less. If given the opportunity to find those situations over a large number of games, we'll make a nice profit if our price, +120, is correct.

Get it? Got it? Good!

Selections will appear on the home page each day.

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