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Iowa State

vs.

Iowa

Pick with Pointspread Analysis

9/8/12

Iowa State hits the road this week to take on in-state rival Iowa. The current line is a mix of -3.5's and -4's, a very good example of why you need multiple outs to win. For example, if you like Iowa, you can lay -3.5 at Betonline and SBG Global. If you like Iowa State, you can take +4 at Sportsbook.ag or 5 Dimes. You can even get reduced juice at 5 Dimes! Shop, shop, shop. No different than buying a gallon of gas. Look to pay as little as possible.

When you handicap a college football game, one of the first things you should be looking at is the quality of the programs involved. This is especially true early in the year. Let's face it, you can try and judge talent before any games are played, but you're not going to get it right every time. Returning starters, as well as last years game between the two schools in question are significant, but you have to dig a little deeper. In this series between Iowa and Iowa State, it's not as if Iowa State hasn't had their moments. They won 5 straight in the late 90's through 2002. But that's the longest streak by Iowa State in this series, and they first played back in 1899!

The previous streak was 3 games starting back in 1980. But that was followed up by Iowa winning 15 in a row. So yeah, Iowa has had the upper hand in the series and yeah, Iowa is the better program. Iowa is 6-3 the last 9 and has won the last 4 games played at Iowa, all by more than the current posted line of -3.5 or -4.

This spot sets up nicely for Iowa. They struggled to get by Northern Illinois last week, coming from behind after trailing 17-6 in the 4th quarter in a game that saw QB James Vandenberg sacked 6 times. Meanwhile, Iowa State was making money for their backers with a 38-23 win over Tulsa. Couple that with the fact that Iowa State beat Iowa last year, 44-41 in OT. All of this keeps the line in check this week and presents us with some nice value. What do you think the line would have been had Iowa rolled last week? Iowa was a -13.5 point favorite the last two times these teams played in Iowa City.

We'll go ahead here and buck the public which is backing Iowa State to the tune of 85% at sportsbook.ag in early wagering action. We'll take what we feel is the more talented team, with a revenge motive to boot and we'll lay the small spot with the home team, Iowa -3.5 and we'd lay up to -6 here and may make it a Key Release at -3. Iowa -3.5

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